Stock fact sheet · data as of
AMERISAFE, Inc. (AMSF): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty · United States · High Yield Income
Is AMSF undervalued?
AMSF closed at 25.04 on 16 Oct 2026, 13% below the GLS average fair value of 28.94 from 9 models (6 of them above the price). That is a moderate margin of safety: the stock passes the "below fair value" rule of the Sunday Scan, and the Wheel Score gives it 18 of the 25 Value points.
There is a wide gap between GLS Growth (7.37) and DCF (55.06). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files AMSF under High Yield Income: a dividend yield above 4%.
Nine valuation models for AMSF
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 55.06 | +120% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 27.54 | +10% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 40.60 | +62% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 10.07 | -60% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 7.37 | -71% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 33.48 | +34% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 19.82 | -21% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 38.55 | +54% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 27.96 | +12% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -24.30 | -197% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 33.50 | +34% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
AMERISAFE, Inc. scores 5 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. On durability AMSF scores 5.0/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Scorecard on the Quote page's Financials tab shows which ten-year lines are steady and which are not.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 18.7%, ROE 18.7%, ROA 4.2% - with debt at 0.00 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 4.2%.
The dividend yield is high at 10.46% (payout ratio 104%) - a payout above 100% of earnings, which is not covered by profits. A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual.
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 18.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 5.0 / 10 | ROE | 18.7% |
| Debt / equity | 0.00 | ROA | 4.2% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 4.2% | Payout ratio | 104% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 66: Good
With a Wheel Score of 66 - the Good band - AMERISAFE, Inc. falls just short of the Sunday Scan's "70 or higher" rule. The parts: Value 18/25, Health 11/20, Moat 8/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 10/20; Stability (10/20) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 45% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is thin - 384 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 303k shares a day on a market cap of $464M, with a beta of 0.27 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 10 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 18 / 25 | 13% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 8 / 15 | moat 5.0/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 45% | |
| Stability | 10 / 20 | 303k shares/day, $464M cap, beta 0.27 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
AMERISAFE, Inc. reports earnings on 28 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Insurance - Specialty
The 12 companies below are the closest to AMERISAFE, Inc. by market cap within the Insurance - Specialty industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ITIC Investors Title Company | 288.15 | 318.19 | +9% | 39No options | $544M |
| TIPT Tiptree Inc. | 16.90 | 265.66 | +94% | 72Good | $629M |
| EIG Employers Holdings, Inc. | 50.45 | 21.00 | -140% | 46Weak | $906M |
| MBI MBIA Inc. | 4.39 | 15.52 | +72% | 45Weak | $224M |
| OSG Octave Specialty Group, Inc. | 4.60 | 9.52 | +52% | 45Weak | $207M |
| JRVR James River Group Holdings, Ltd. | 3.71 | 15.89 | +77% | 60Fair | $172M |
| NMIH NMI Holdings, Inc. | 40.10 | 97.71 | +59% | 88Prime | $3.0B |
| AGO Assured Guaranty Ltd. | 69.86 | 187.20 | +63% | 77Good | $3.1B |
| RDN Radian Group Inc. | 33.41 | 81.50 | +59% | 85Prime | $4.4B |
| MTG MGIC Investment Corporation | 27.61 | 49.38 | +44% | 89Prime | $5.7B |
| ESNT Essent Group Ltd. | 63.76 | 105.84 | +40% | 83Prime | $5.7B |
| ACT Enact Holdings Inc. | 45.67 | 66.03 | +31% | 87Prime | $6.3B |
⚖ Compare AMSF with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about AMSF
Is AMSF undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, moderately: at 25.04 the stock trades 13% below the average fair value of 28.94 (data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of AMSF and what does it mean?
AMSF scores 66 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for AMSF?
28.94 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does AMERISAFE, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 28 Oct 2026 (after the close), 12 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does AMSF have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 82 listed contracts with 384 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 45% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.