Stock fact sheet · data as of
Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty · Bermuda · Defensive
Is ESNT undervalued?
ESNT has a margin of safety of 40%: the stock closed at 63.76 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 105.84. 7 of the 9 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our screens treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.
The 9 models disagree widely: DDM gives 20.01 while 10 Cap gives 213.44. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files ESNT under Defensive: a low beta, a dividend and positive earnings.
Nine valuation models for ESNT
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 117.79 | +85% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 102.64 | +61% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 113.53 | +78% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 26.17 | -59% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 65.51 | +3% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 213.44 | +235% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 210.10 | +230% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 20.01 | -69% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 83.35 | +31% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 57.36 | -10% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 70.00 | +10% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - ESNT passes 5 of the nine Piotroski tests, which falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is 7.6 out of 10, built from ten years of revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, share count and returns on capital scored for consistency - a high reading that points to a durable business.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 11.0%, ROE 12.0%, ROA 9.3% - with debt at 0.09 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 14.4%.
The dividend yield is 2.13% at a payout ratio of 18%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Mortgage Insurance 84%, Reinsurance 16% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded insider buy was on 14 Sep 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 11.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 7.6 / 10 | ROE | 12.0% |
| Debt / equity | 0.09 | ROA | 9.3% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 14.4% | Payout ratio | 18% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 83: Prime
ESNT scores 83 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Prime band (80 and above), which fewer than one stock in twenty reaches on any night. The score blends five things a wheel trader checks before selling a cash-secured put: the margin of safety (Value, 25/25), Piotroski health (11/20), the GLS moat (11/15), the option premium on offer (20/20) and how easily the stock trades (16/20).
Implied volatility is 35% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (20 of 20 points). Chain open interest is 3,441 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 609k shares a day on a market cap of $5.7B, with a beta of 0.76 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 16 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 40% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 11 / 15 | moat 7.6/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 35% | |
| Stability | 16 / 20 | 609k shares/day, $5.7B cap, beta 0.76 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 6 Nov 2026 (before the open), 21 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Insurance - Specialty
The 12 companies below are the closest to Essent Group Ltd. by market cap within the Insurance - Specialty industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTG MGIC Investment Corporation | 27.61 | 49.38 | +44% | 89Prime | $5.7B |
| ACT Enact Holdings Inc. | 45.67 | 66.03 | +31% | 87Prime | $6.3B |
| FAF First American Financial Corporation | 63.43 | 106.39 | +40% | 87Prime | $6.5B |
| RDN Radian Group Inc. | 33.41 | 81.50 | +59% | 85Prime | $4.4B |
| FNF Fidelity National Financial, Inc. | 39.68 | 112.61 | +65% | 91Prime | $10.6B |
| AGO Assured Guaranty Ltd. | 69.86 | 187.20 | +63% | 77Good | $3.1B |
| NMIH NMI Holdings, Inc. | 40.10 | 97.71 | +59% | 88Prime | $3.0B |
| EIG Employers Holdings, Inc. | 50.45 | 21.00 | -140% | 46Weak | $906M |
| TIPT Tiptree Inc. | 16.90 | 265.66 | +94% | 72Good | $629M |
| ITIC Investors Title Company | 288.15 | 318.19 | +9% | 39No options | $544M |
| AMSF AMERISAFE, Inc. | 25.04 | 28.94 | +13% | 66Good | $464M |
| MBI MBIA Inc. | 4.39 | 15.52 | +72% | 45Weak | $224M |
⚖ Compare ESNT with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about ESNT
Is ESNT undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 63.76 the stock is 40% below the average fair value of 105.84 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of ESNT and what does it mean?
ESNT scores 83 out of 100 (Prime). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for ESNT?
105.84 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Essent Group Ltd. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 6 Nov 2026 (before the open), 21 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does ESNT have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 132 listed contracts with 3,441 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 35% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.