Stock fact sheet · data as of
NMI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol NMIH · Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty · United States · Blend
Is NMIH undervalued?
NMIH has a margin of safety of 55%: the stock closed at 43.96 on 5 Nov 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 98.38. 7 of the 8 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our scans treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.
The 8 models disagree widely: Lynch gives 18.16 while Payback Time gives 167.55. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
Ranked against every other company we cover, neither cheapness nor growth clearly wins for NMIH, so the nightly engine files it under Blend (value score 75, growth score 55, out of 100).
Nine valuation models for NMIH
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 140.59 | +220% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 64.73 | +47% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 78.87 | +79% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 18.16 | -59% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 112.67 | +156% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 146.50 | +233% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 167.55 | +281% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 57.97 | +32% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -3.30 | -108% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 49.50 | +13% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - NMIH passes 6 of the nine Piotroski tests, which passes the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is 8.8 out of 10 - high returns on capital, steady margins and growth that held up through bad years point to a durable business.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 12.9%, ROE 15.0%, ROA 10.1% - with debt at 0.16 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 13.4%.
NMI Holdings, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain.
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 2/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 12.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 8.8 / 10 | ROE | 15.0% |
| Debt / equity | 0.16 | ROA | 10.1% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 13.4% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 2 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 54: Fair
NMIH scores 54 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Fair band, 50-69) because it fails filter 1, options that actually trade - options too quiet (344 open interest, 31 a day). A stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to reach 70. Otherwise the parts read: value strong, premium strong, moat strong, health good, red flags strong, option trading weak, stability fair.
Implied volatility is 36% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% sweet spot the Wheel Score rewards most: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is thin - 344 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 618k shares a day on a market cap of $3.3B, with a beta of 0.53 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that fair.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Fails | options too quiet (344 open interest, 31 a day) |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Passes | Trading below the nine-model average fair value (margin of safety above 0) |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Passes | Piotroski F-score 6 or more out of 9 (a company with no score on file passes) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Strong | 55% below fair value | |
| Premium | Strong | implied volatility 36% | |
| Moat | Strong | moat 8.8/10 | |
| Health | Good | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Red Flags | Strong | Red Flags score 100/100 | |
| Option trading | Weak | 31 contracts a day, 344 open interest | |
| Stability | Fair | beta 0.53, $3.3B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
NMI Holdings, Inc. reports earnings on 5 Nov 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Insurance - Specialty
The 12 companies below are the closest to NMI Holdings, Inc. by market cap within the Insurance - Specialty industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGO Assured Guaranty Ltd. | 72.51 | 187.86 | +61% | 44Weak | $3.2B |
| RDN Radian Group Inc. | 36.59 | 82.19 | +55% | 82Good | $4.8B |
| MTG MGIC Investment Corporation | 29.13 | 48.62 | +40% | 82Good | $6.0B |
| ESNT Essent Group Ltd. | 69.34 | 106.71 | +35% | 51Fair | $6.2B |
| ACT Enact Holdings Inc. | 48.24 | 66.67 | +28% | 53Fair | $6.6B |
| FAF First American Financial Corporation | 67.67 | 100.36 | +33% | 50Fair | $6.9B |
| FNF Fidelity National Financial, Inc. | 43.28 | 112.42 | +62% | 89Prime | $11.6B |
| EIG Employers Holdings, Inc. | 47.58 | 29.35 | -62% | 32Weak | $834M |
| TIPT Tiptree Inc. | 17.95 | 260.65 | +93% | 46Weak | $654M |
| ITIC Investors Title Company | 268.89 | 319.62 | +16% | 29No options | $508M |
| AMSF AMERISAFE, Inc. | 20.34 | 25.98 | +22% | 45Weak | $377M |
| OSG Octave Specialty Group, Inc. | 5.22 | 9.54 | +45% | 40Weak | $235M |
⚖ Compare NMIH with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about NMIH
Is NMIH undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 43.96 the stock is 55% below the average fair value of 98.38 (data as of 5 Nov 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of NMIH and what does it mean?
NMIH scores 54 out of 100 (Fair) - it fails Wheel Trade Filter 1. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for NMIH?
98.38 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does NMI Holdings, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (after the close), 0 days from the data date of 5 Nov 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does NMIH have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 26 listed contracts with 344 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 36% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.