Stock fact sheet · data as of
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol AJG · Financial Services · Insurance - Brokers · United States · Growth
Is AJG undervalued?
At 288.38 (close of 5 Nov 2026), AJG trades 80% over the GLS average fair value of 160.65, with 1 of 9 models above the price. The stock earns none of the Wheel Score's Value points at this price. That is a statement about price against trailing fundamentals, not about the company's prospects - the Wall Street View and the Growth tab on the Quote page carry the forward numbers.
The 9 models disagree widely: DDM gives 40.46 while DCF gives 330.69. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
Ranked against every other company we cover, AJG is clearly faster-growing than it is cheap, so the nightly engine files it under Growth (value score 16, growth score 66, out of 100).
Nine valuation models for AJG
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 330.69 | +15% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 118.10 | -59% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 226.32 | -22% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 87.60 | -70% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 112.33 | -61% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 216.55 | -25% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 240.27 | -17% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 40.46 | -86% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 73.55 | -74% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -50.55 | -118% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 284.92 | -1% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - AJG passes 6 of the nine Piotroski tests, which passes the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is 8.0 out of 10 - high returns on capital, steady margins and growth that held up through bad years point to a durable business.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 4.0%, ROE 6.4%, ROA 2.1% - with debt at 0.60 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 3.1%.
The dividend yield is 0.95% with a payout ratio of 41% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Commissions 62%, Brokerage 30%, Supplemental Revenue 4% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 3/10 and Congressional trading 6/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 8.0 / 10 | ROE | 6.4% |
| Debt / equity | 0.60 | ROA | 2.1% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 3.1% | Payout ratio | 41% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 3 · 6 / 10 |
Wheel Score 43: Weak
AJG scores 43 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50): it fails filter 3, below fair value - trades 80% above our fair value, and the parts are thin too - value weak, premium strong, moat strong, health good, red flags strong, option trading fair, stability strong. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 33% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: enough to pass the 25-80% Wheel Trade Filter, but under the 35-60% sweet spot the score rewards most. Chain open interest is 12,129 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 2.2M shares a day on a market cap of $73.9B, with a beta of 0.55 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that strong.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Fails | trades 80% above our fair value |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Passes | Piotroski F-score 6 or more out of 9 (a company with no score on file passes) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Weak | 80% above fair value | |
| Premium | Strong | implied volatility 33% | |
| Moat | Strong | moat 8.0/10 | |
| Health | Good | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Red Flags | Strong | Red Flags score 92/100 | |
| Option trading | Fair | 1,362 contracts a day, 12,129 open interest | |
| Stability | Strong | beta 0.55, $73.9B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 28 Jan 2027, 84 days away - outside the window of a 30-45-day put sold today. The next ex-dividend date is 7 Dec 2026 (0.7000 per share).
In the last 30 days analysts logged 1 upgrade and 1 downgrade on AJG; the latest action was a downgrade by BMO Capital on 3 Nov 2026.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Insurance - Brokers
The 12 companies below are the closest to Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. by market cap within the Insurance - Brokers industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AON Aon plc | 344.67 | 413.95 | +17% | 71Good | $73.1B |
| MRSH Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. | 210.38 | 158.89 | -32% | 41Weak | $100.4B |
| WTW Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company | 337.37 | 382.34 | +12% | 36Weak | $31.1B |
| BRO Brown & Brown, Inc. | 73.89 | 90.70 | +19% | 80Good | $24.5B |
| RYAN Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. | 47.54 | 38.59 | -23% | 39Weak | $5.8B |
| CRVL CorVel Corporation | 87.38 | 66.84 | -31% | 41Weak | $4.4B |
| NP Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. | 28.55 | 13.69 | -109% | 36Weak | $2.7B |
| BWIN The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. | 32.14 | 27.30 | -18% | 11Weak | $2.6B |
| LIFE Ethos Technologies Inc. | 37.13 | 20.58 | -80% | 30Weak | $2.4B |
| GSHD Goosehead Insurance, Inc | 56.35 | 64.68 | +13% | 37Weak | $2.0B |
| TWFG TWFG, Inc. Common Stock | 29.58 | 44.50 | +34% | 33No options | $381M |
| WDH Waterdrop Inc. | 1.01 | 45.70 | +98% | 33No options | $365M |
⚖ Compare AJG with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
Scan the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the top 10 stocks that pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about AJG
Is AJG undervalued right now?
No: at 288.38 the stock trades 80% above the GLS average fair value of 160.65 (data as of 5 Nov 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of AJG and what does it mean?
AJG scores 43 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filter 3. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for AJG?
160.65 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 28 Jan 2027, 84 days from the data date of 5 Nov 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does AJG have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 156 listed contracts with 12,129 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 33% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.