AppLovin Corporation (APP): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is APP undervalued?

At 279.29 (close of 16 Oct 2026), APP trades 18% under the GLS average fair value of 342.32. 4 of the 8 models that produced a value land above the price. A discount of this size counts as a positive margin of safety in every GLS screen; whether it is enough depends on the rest of the picture - the health score, the moat and the option premium below.

There is a wide gap between Graham Number (52.63) and GLS Growth (802.09). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.

The nightly engine files APP under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.

Nine valuation models for APP

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

AppLovin Corporation scores 8 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. A GLS Moat score of 7.6/10 puts APP among the more durable businesses we track: over ten years the metrics the score watches (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, ROIC) have mostly moved the right way, year after year.

Returns on capital are high - ROIC 58.7%, ROE 156.2%, ROA 45.9% - with debt at 1.66 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 4.8%.

AppLovin Corporation pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Reportable 100% (quarter Q2 FY2026).

Institutional ownership scores 8/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 7/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded Congressional buy was on 25 Sep 2026.

Wheel Score 80: Prime

With a Wheel Score of 80, AppLovin Corporation sits in the Prime band - price, quality and premium all line up for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 20/25, Health 18/20, Moat 11/15, Premium 15/20, Stability 15/20. A high score is a ranking, not a signal: it says nothing about timing, the earnings date or your position size.

Implied volatility is 79% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (15 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. The option chain is deep: 171,765 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.

Volume runs at 4.4M shares a day on a market cap of $93.8B, with a beta of 2.56 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 15 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

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