Stock fact sheet · data as of
Aris Mining Corporation (ARIS): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Basic Materials · Gold · Canada · High Growth
Is ARIS undervalued?
At 17.36 (close of 16 Oct 2026), ARIS trades 53% below the GLS average fair value of 36.73. That average comes from 7 models run on the latest filings, and 5 of them land above the current price. Margins of safety over 30% are the exception rather than the rule across the ~7,400 stocks we value each night, so the number earns Aris Mining Corporation the full Value points in the Wheel Score - and a closer look at what the market is pricing in.
There is a wide gap between EPV (15.21) and GLS Growth (83.82). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files ARIS under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.
Nine valuation models for ARIS
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 16.22 | -7% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 56.87 | +228% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 23.26 | +34% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 83.82 | +383% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 39.03 | +125% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 22.71 | +31% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 15.21 | -12% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -2.60 | -115% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 23.29 | +34% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Aris Mining Corporation scores 7 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. A GLS Moat score of 4.3/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 4.0%, ROE 5.4%, ROA 3.1% - with debt at 0.36 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 3.3%.
Aris Mining Corporation pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Other Revenue 100% (quarter Q2 FY2025).
Institutional ownership scores 1/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.3 / 10 | ROE | 5.4% |
| Debt / equity | 0.36 | ROA | 3.1% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 3.3% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 1 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 82: Prime
With a Wheel Score of 82, Aris Mining Corporation sits in the Prime band - price, quality and premium all line up for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 25/25, Health 16/20, Moat 6/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 15/20. A high score is a ranking, not a signal: it says nothing about timing, the earnings date or your position size.
Implied volatility is 58% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 11,913 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 1.9M shares a day on a market cap of $3.6B, with a beta of 2.04 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 15 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 53% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 6 / 15 | moat 4.3/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 58% | |
| Stability | 15 / 20 | 1.9M shares/day, $3.6B cap, beta 2.04 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Gold
The 12 companies below are the closest to Aris Mining Corporation by market cap within the Gold industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSM Fortuna Mining Corp. | 10.54 | 33.78 | +69% | 84Prime | $3.1B |
| CGAU Centerra Gold Inc. | 21.97 | 48.60 | +55% | 81Prime | $4.3B |
| NG NovaGold Resources Inc. | 6.56 | - | - | 45Weak | $2.9B |
| AAUC Allied Gold Corporation | 20.55 | 37.45 | +45% | 39No options | $2.9B |
| SA Seabridge Gold Inc. | 25.32 | 3.28 | -672% | 43Weak | $2.7B |
| OGC OceanaGold Corporation | 26.65 | 40.10 | +34% | 45Weak | $5.9B |
| DRD DRDGOLD Limited | 24.91 | 190.45 | +87% | 80Prime | $2.2B |
| SSRM SSR Mining Inc. | 30.70 | 21.78 | -41% | 65Good | $6.3B |
| OR OR Royalties Inc. | 35.16 | 39.69 | +11% | 77Good | $6.6B |
| BTG B2Gold Corp. | 5.18 | 7.12 | +27% | 81Prime | $6.8B |
| AUGO Aura Minerals | 85.47 | 72.88 | -17% | 62Fair | $7.2B |
| HYMC Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation | 17.42 | 4.15 | -319% | 34Weak | $1.6B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about ARIS
Is ARIS undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 17.36 the stock is 53% below the average fair value of 36.73 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of ARIS and what does it mean?
ARIS scores 82 out of 100 (Prime). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for ARIS?
36.73 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 7 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Aris Mining Corporation report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does ARIS have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 116 listed contracts with 11,913 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 58% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.