Stock fact sheet · data as of
OceanaGold Corporation (OGC): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Basic Materials · Gold · Canada · Speculative / Distressed
Is OGC undervalued?
OceanaGold Corporation (OGC) closed at 26.65 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 9 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 40.10, which puts the price 34% below it. 5 of the 9 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.
There is a wide gap between DDM (4.41) and 10 Cap (110.87). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files OGC under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for OGC
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 19.69 | -26% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 31.47 | +18% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 62.49 | +134% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 15.49 | -42% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 11.34 | -57% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 110.87 | +316% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 62.12 | +133% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 4.41 | -83% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 43.04 | +61% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -0.6851 | -103% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 0.0000 | -100% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
OceanaGold Corporation scores only 0 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, which fails the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. A reading this low means several of the basic tests - positive earnings, positive operating cash flow, falling debt, no new share issuance - are not met. On durability OGC scores 5.0/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Scorecard on the Quote page's Financials tab shows which ten-year lines are steady and which are not.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 27.1%, ROE 27.7%, ROA 19.3% - with debt at 0.02 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 12.2%.
The dividend yield is 1.13% with a payout ratio of 6% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business.
Institutional ownership scores 1/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 0 / 9 | ROIC | 27.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 5.0 / 10 | ROE | 27.7% |
| Debt / equity | 0.02 | ROA | 19.3% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 12.2% | Payout ratio | 6% |
| Institutions | 1 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 45: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 45 OceanaGold Corporation sits in the Weak band, capped at 45 because the engine files it as Speculative / Distressed. The parts - Value 25/25, Health 0/20, Moat 8/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 14/20 - show where: Health (0/20) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 58% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 5,365 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 376k shares a day on a market cap of $5.9B, with a beta of 1.50 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 14 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 34% margin of safety | |
| Health | 0 / 20 | Piotroski 0/9 | |
| Moat | 8 / 15 | moat 5.0/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 58% | |
| Stability | 14 / 20 | 376k shares/day, $5.9B cap, beta 1.50 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Gold
The 12 companies below are the closest to OceanaGold Corporation by market cap within the Gold industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSRM SSR Mining Inc. | 30.70 | 21.78 | -41% | 65Good | $6.3B |
| OR OR Royalties Inc. | 35.16 | 39.69 | +11% | 77Good | $6.6B |
| BTG B2Gold Corp. | 5.18 | 7.12 | +27% | 81Prime | $6.8B |
| AUGO Aura Minerals | 85.47 | 72.88 | -17% | 62Fair | $7.2B |
| CGAU Centerra Gold Inc. | 21.97 | 48.60 | +55% | 81Prime | $4.3B |
| EGO Eldorado Gold Corporation | 36.23 | 60.20 | +40% | 84Prime | $9.4B |
| ARIS Aris Mining Corporation | 17.36 | 36.73 | +53% | 82Prime | $3.6B |
| IAG Iamgold Corporation | 17.76 | 54.47 | +67% | 87Prime | $10.1B |
| HMY Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited | 16.98 | 202.12 | +92% | 95Prime | $10.6B |
| FSM Fortuna Mining Corp. | 10.54 | 33.78 | +69% | 84Prime | $3.1B |
| NG NovaGold Resources Inc. | 6.56 | - | - | 45Weak | $2.9B |
| AAUC Allied Gold Corporation | 20.55 | 37.45 | +45% | 39No options | $2.9B |
Screen the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about OGC
Is OGC undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 26.65 the stock is 34% below the average fair value of 40.10 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of OGC and what does it mean?
OGC scores 45 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for OGC?
40.10 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does OceanaGold Corporation report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does OGC have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 92 listed contracts with 5,365 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 58% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.