Stock fact sheet · data as of
Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Basic Materials · Gold · Canada · High Growth
Is CGAU undervalued?
Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) closed at 21.97 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 9 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 48.60, which puts the price 55% below it. 6 of the 9 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.
The 9 models disagree widely: DDM gives 2.91 while GLS Growth gives 197.38. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files CGAU under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.
Nine valuation models for CGAU
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 9.04 | -59% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 28.24 | +29% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 68.90 | +214% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 21.53 | -2% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 197.38 | +798% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 46.60 | +112% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 26.95 | +23% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 2.91 | -87% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 35.82 | +63% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 0.9399 | -96% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 19.00 | -14% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - CGAU passes 6 of the nine Piotroski tests, which passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is 5.3 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 28.0%, ROE 28.4%, ROA 19.9% - with debt at 0.01 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 3.1%.
The dividend yield is 0.90% with a payout ratio of 6% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Gold 40%, Molybdenum 30%, Copper 28% (fiscal year FY2022).
Institutional ownership scores 9/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 28.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 5.3 / 10 | ROE | 28.4% |
| Debt / equity | 0.01 | ROA | 19.9% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 3.1% | Payout ratio | 6% |
| Institutions | 9 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 81: Prime
CGAU scores 81 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Prime band (80 and above), which fewer than one stock in twenty reaches on any night. The score blends five things a wheel trader checks before selling a cash-secured put: the margin of safety (Value, 25/25), Piotroski health (13/20), the GLS moat (8/15), the option premium on offer (20/20) and how easily the stock trades (15/20).
Implied volatility is 54% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 12,594 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 892k shares a day on a market cap of $4.3B, with a beta of 1.56 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 15 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 55% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 8 / 15 | moat 5.3/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 54% | |
| Stability | 15 / 20 | 892k shares/day, $4.3B cap, beta 1.56 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Centerra Gold Inc. reports earnings on 27 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Gold
The 12 companies below are the closest to Centerra Gold Inc. by market cap within the Gold industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARIS Aris Mining Corporation | 17.36 | 36.73 | +53% | 82Prime | $3.6B |
| FSM Fortuna Mining Corp. | 10.54 | 33.78 | +69% | 84Prime | $3.1B |
| OGC OceanaGold Corporation | 26.65 | 40.10 | +34% | 45Weak | $5.9B |
| SSRM SSR Mining Inc. | 30.70 | 21.78 | -41% | 65Good | $6.3B |
| NG NovaGold Resources Inc. | 6.56 | - | - | 45Weak | $2.9B |
| AAUC Allied Gold Corporation | 20.55 | 37.45 | +45% | 39No options | $2.9B |
| OR OR Royalties Inc. | 35.16 | 39.69 | +11% | 77Good | $6.6B |
| SA Seabridge Gold Inc. | 25.32 | 3.28 | -672% | 43Weak | $2.7B |
| BTG B2Gold Corp. | 5.18 | 7.12 | +27% | 81Prime | $6.8B |
| AUGO Aura Minerals | 85.47 | 72.88 | -17% | 62Fair | $7.2B |
| DRD DRDGOLD Limited | 24.91 | 190.45 | +87% | 80Prime | $2.2B |
| EGO Eldorado Gold Corporation | 36.23 | 60.20 | +40% | 84Prime | $9.4B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about CGAU
Is CGAU undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 21.97 the stock is 55% below the average fair value of 48.60 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of CGAU and what does it mean?
CGAU scores 81 out of 100 (Prime). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for CGAU?
48.60 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Centerra Gold Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 27 Oct 2026 (after the close), 11 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does CGAU have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 90 listed contracts with 12,594 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 54% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.