Stock fact sheet · data as of
American Water Works Company, Inc. (AWK): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Utilities · Regulated Water · United States · Defensive
Is AWK undervalued?
American Water Works Company, Inc. (AWK) closed at 133.04 on 16 Oct 2026, 84% above the GLS average fair value of 72.48. 6 of the 7 models that produced a number value the shares below the current price. A gap this wide usually means the market is paying for growth or a story the trailing numbers do not show yet; the models work from filed results, not forecasts, so they are conservative by design.
There is a wide gap between 10 Cap (29.71) and Graham Growth (136.35). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files AWK under Defensive: a low beta, a dividend and positive earnings.
Nine valuation models for AWK
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 87.79 | -34% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 136.35 | +2% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 45.27 | -66% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 93.61 | -30% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 29.71 | -78% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 50.69 | -62% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 63.95 | -52% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -118.24 | -189% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 140.50 | +6% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
American Water Works Company, Inc. scores 6 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. On durability AWK scores 6.1/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Scorecard on the Quote page's Financials tab shows which ten-year lines are steady and which are not.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 4.2%, ROE 10.3%, ROA 3.0% - with debt at 1.47 times equity and negative free cash flow.
The dividend yield is 2.59% at a payout ratio of 58%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Regulated Business 100% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 1/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 4.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 6.1 / 10 | ROE | 10.3% |
| Debt / equity | 1.47 | ROA | 3.0% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -3.9% | Payout ratio | 58% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 1 / 10 |
Wheel Score 54: Fair
A Wheel Score of 54 puts American Water Works Company, Inc. in the Fair band - below the 70 the Sunday Scan requires. Value 0/25, Health 13/20, Moat 9/15, Premium 11/20 and Stability 20/20; the weakest part is Value (0/25).
Implied volatility is 26% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (11 of 20 points). Chain open interest is 13,945 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 3.1M shares a day on a market cap of $26.4B, with a beta of 0.57 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -84% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 9 / 15 | moat 6.1/10 | |
| Premium | 11 / 20 | implied volatility 26% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 3.1M shares/day, $26.4B cap, beta 0.57 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
American Water Works Company, Inc. reports earnings on 28 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Regulated Water
The 12 companies below are the closest to American Water Works Company, Inc. by market cap within the Regulated Water industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBS Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo - SABESP | 6.42 | 108.85 | +94% | 86Prime | $21.9B |
| WTRG Essential Utilities, Inc. | 39.85 | 22.89 | -74% | 60Fair | $11.3B |
| AWR American States Water Company | 82.74 | 45.00 | -84% | 51Fair | $3.3B |
| CWT California Water Service Group | 46.05 | 24.67 | -87% | 53Fair | $2.8B |
| HTO H2O America | 57.30 | 39.94 | -43% | 54Fair | $2.4B |
| MSEX Middlesex Water Company | 53.91 | 28.46 | -89% | 47Weak | $1.0B |
| MSEXP Middlesex Water Company PFD 7% | 492.00 | 151.21 | -225% | 28No options | $822M |
| YORW The York Water Company | 31.07 | 16.60 | -87% | 49Weak | $504M |
| CWCO Consolidated Water Co. Ltd. | 28.76 | 37.63 | +24% | 69Good | $461M |
| ARTNB Artesian Resources Corporation | 34.01 | 26.54 | -28% | 25No options | $349M |
| ARTNA Artesian Resources Corporation | 33.16 | 26.17 | -27% | 26No options | $342M |
| CDZI Cadiz Inc. | 3.81 | - | - | 35Weak | $323M |
Screen the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about AWK
Is AWK undervalued right now?
No: at 133.04 the stock trades 84% above the GLS average fair value of 72.48 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of AWK and what does it mean?
AWK scores 54 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for AWK?
72.48 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 7 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does American Water Works Company, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 28 Oct 2026 (after the close), 12 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does AWK have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 230 listed contracts with 13,945 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 26% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.