Stock fact sheet · data as of
American Water Works Company, Inc. (AWK): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol AWK · Utilities · Regulated Water · United States · Growth
Is AWK undervalued?
American Water Works Company, Inc. (AWK) closed at 149.63 on 5 Nov 2026, 115% above the GLS average fair value of 69.73. 7 of the 7 models that produced a number value the shares below the current price. A gap this wide usually means the market is paying for growth or a story the trailing numbers do not show yet; the models work from filed results, not forecasts, so they are conservative by design.
There is a wide gap between 10 Cap (18.94) and Graham Growth (132.61). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
Ranked against every other company we cover, AWK is clearly faster-growing than it is cheap, so the nightly engine files it under Growth (value score 23, growth score 55, out of 100).
Nine valuation models for AWK
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 87.75 | -41% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 132.61 | -11% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 43.55 | -71% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 91.13 | -39% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 18.94 | -87% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 50.69 | -66% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 63.43 | -58% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -118.01 | -179% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 142.00 | -5% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
American Water Works Company, Inc. scores only 4 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, which fails the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter. A reading this low means several of the basic tests - positive earnings, positive operating cash flow, falling debt, no new share issuance - are not met. On durability AWK scores 6.6/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Moat Score tab on the Quote page's Financials view shows which of the four parts hold it back.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 4.2%, ROE 10.3%, ROA 3.0% - with debt at 1.47 times equity and negative free cash flow.
The dividend yield is 2.30% at a payout ratio of 59%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Regulated Business 100% (quarter Q3 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 1/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 4 / 9 | ROIC | 4.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 6.6 / 10 | ROE | 10.3% |
| Debt / equity | 1.47 | ROA | 3.0% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -3.9% | Payout ratio | 59% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 1 / 10 |
Wheel Score 30: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 30 American Water Works Company, Inc. sits in the Weak band. It fails filter 3, below fair value - trades 115% above our fair value; and filter 4, financially healthy - Piotroski 4/9 (under 6); and filter 5, can repay its debt - 6.2 years to repay its debt (over 6); Value (weak) is its weakest part.
Implied volatility is 26% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: enough to pass the 25-80% Wheel Trade Filter, but under the 35-60% sweet spot the score rewards most. Chain open interest is 14,671 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 3.1M shares a day on a market cap of $29.8B, with a beta of 0.55 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that strong.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Fails | trades 115% above our fair value |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Fails | Piotroski 4/9 (under 6) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Fails | 6.2 years to repay its debt (over 6) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Weak | 115% above fair value | |
| Premium | Fair | implied volatility 26% | |
| Moat | Good | moat 6.6/10 | |
| Health | Fair | Piotroski 4/9 | |
| Red Flags | Fair | Red Flags score 72/100 | |
| Option trading | Fair | 3,575 contracts a day, 14,671 open interest | |
| Stability | Strong | beta 0.55, $29.8B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for AWK in the nightly calendar. The shares go ex-dividend on 12 Nov 2026 (0.8950 per share), so a covered call sold before then carries a small early-assignment risk around that date.
No analyst upgrades or downgrades were recorded in the last 30 days.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Regulated Water
The 12 companies below are the closest to American Water Works Company, Inc. by market cap within the Regulated Water industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBS Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo - SABESP | 4.62 | 54.10 | +91% | 50Fair | $15.8B |
| WTRG Essential Utilities, Inc. | 45.13 | 23.31 | -94% | 26Weak | $12.8B |
| AWR American States Water Company | 88.61 | 46.34 | -91% | 31Weak | $3.5B |
| CWT California Water Service Group | 49.96 | 25.23 | -98% | 25Weak | $3.1B |
| HTO H2O America | 62.65 | 37.06 | -69% | 35Weak | $3.0B |
| MSEX Middlesex Water Company | 59.20 | 28.34 | -109% | 36Weak | $1.1B |
| MSEXP Middlesex Water Company PFD 7% | 492.00 | 134.84 | -265% | 15No options | $822M |
| YORW The York Water Company | 32.26 | 16.59 | -94% | 28Weak | $524M |
| CWCO Consolidated Water Co. Ltd. | 27.39 | 37.70 | +27% | 45Weak | $439M |
| ARTNA Artesian Resources Corporation | 33.85 | 26.16 | -29% | 19No options | $350M |
| ARTNB Artesian Resources Corporation | 34.92 | 26.62 | -31% | 19No options | $350M |
| CDZIP Cadiz Inc. | 19.41 | 4.42 | -339% | 10No options | $330M |
Scan the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the top 10 stocks that pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about AWK
Is AWK undervalued right now?
No: at 149.63 the stock trades 115% above the GLS average fair value of 69.73 (data as of 5 Nov 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of AWK and what does it mean?
AWK scores 30 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filters 3, 4, 5. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for AWK?
69.73 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 7 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does American Water Works Company, Inc. report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for AWK in our calendar as of 5 Nov 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does AWK have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 84 listed contracts with 14,671 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 26% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.