Stock fact sheet · data as of
Middlesex Water Company (MSEX): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Utilities · Regulated Water · United States · Defensive
Is MSEX undervalued?
MSEX closed at 53.91 on 16 Oct 2026, more than 30% above the GLS average fair value of 28.46. Only 1 of the 8 models that produced a value sit above the price. By our models the shares are priced well beyond what the filed earnings, cash flow and book value support; the Sunday Scan drops names like this at the "below fair value" rule.
There is a wide gap between GLS Growth (7.81) and Graham Growth (59.38). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files MSEX under Defensive: a low beta, a dividend and positive earnings.
Nine valuation models for MSEX
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 40.13 | -26% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 59.38 | +10% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 19.48 | -64% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 7.81 | -86% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 35.74 | -34% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 15.47 | -71% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 21.19 | -61% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 28.47 | -47% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -43.97 | -182% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 65.00 | +21% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Middlesex Water Company scores 5 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 4.4/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 4.7%, ROE 8.6%, ROA 3.1% - with debt at 0.84 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 1.5%.
The dividend yield is 2.67% at a payout ratio of 55%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Residential 71%, Commercial 20%, Industrial 9% (quarter Q2 FY2025).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 8/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 4.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.4 / 10 | ROE | 8.6% |
| Debt / equity | 0.84 | ROA | 3.1% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 1.5% | Payout ratio | 55% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 8 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 47: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 47 Middlesex Water Company sits in the Weak band. The parts - Value 0/25, Health 11/20, Moat 7/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 9/20 - show where: Value (0/25) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 39% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is thin - 804 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 162k shares a day on a market cap of $1.0B, with a beta of 0.73 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 9 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -89% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 7 / 15 | moat 4.4/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 39% | |
| Stability | 9 / 20 | 162k shares/day, $1.0B cap, beta 0.73 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Middlesex Water Company reports earnings on 23 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Regulated Water
The 12 companies below are the closest to Middlesex Water Company by market cap within the Regulated Water industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSEXP Middlesex Water Company PFD 7% | 492.00 | 151.21 | -225% | 28No options | $822M |
| YORW The York Water Company | 31.07 | 16.60 | -87% | 49Weak | $504M |
| CWCO Consolidated Water Co. Ltd. | 28.76 | 37.63 | +24% | 69Good | $461M |
| HTO H2O America | 57.30 | 39.94 | -43% | 54Fair | $2.4B |
| CWT California Water Service Group | 46.05 | 24.67 | -87% | 53Fair | $2.8B |
| ARTNB Artesian Resources Corporation | 34.01 | 26.54 | -28% | 25No options | $349M |
| ARTNA Artesian Resources Corporation | 33.16 | 26.17 | -27% | 26No options | $342M |
| CDZI Cadiz Inc. | 3.81 | - | - | 35Weak | $323M |
| AWR American States Water Company | 82.74 | 45.00 | -84% | 51Fair | $3.3B |
| CDZIP Cadiz Inc. | 19.60 | - | - | 24No options | $298M |
| PCYO Pure Cycle Corporation | 11.19 | 7.42 | -51% | 42Weak | $270M |
| GWRS Global Water Resources, Inc. | 8.09 | 3.26 | -148% | 42Weak | $233M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about MSEX
Is MSEX undervalued right now?
No: at 53.91 the stock trades 89% above the GLS average fair value of 28.46 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of MSEX and what does it mean?
MSEX scores 47 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for MSEX?
28.46 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Middlesex Water Company report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 23 Oct 2026 (after the close), 7 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does MSEX have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 114 listed contracts with 804 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 39% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.