Stock fact sheet · data as of
California Water Service Group (CWT): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Utilities · Regulated Water · United States · Defensive
Is CWT undervalued?
CWT closed at 46.05 on 16 Oct 2026, more than 30% above the GLS average fair value of 24.67. Only 0 of the 6 models that produced a value sit above the price. By our models the shares are priced well beyond what the filed earnings, cash flow and book value support; the Sunday Scan drops names like this at the "below fair value" rule.
The 6 models disagree widely: GLS Growth gives 10.22 while Graham Growth gives 42.93. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files CWT under Defensive: a low beta, a dividend and positive earnings.
Nine valuation models for CWT
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 38.59 | -16% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 42.93 | -7% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 12.57 | -73% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 10.22 | -78% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 19.20 | -58% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 24.52 | -47% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -58.62 | -227% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 53.50 | +16% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - CWT passes 6 of the nine Piotroski tests, which passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is low at 4.1 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 3.9%, ROE 7.6%, ROA 2.3% - with debt at 0.96 times equity and negative free cash flow.
The dividend yield is 2.83% at a payout ratio of 57%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Residential 58%, Business 20%, Service, Other 11% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 3.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.1 / 10 | ROE | 7.6% |
| Debt / equity | 0.96 | ROA | 2.3% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -8.3% | Payout ratio | 57% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 53: Fair
CWT scores 53 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Fair band, 50-64): a usable but unremarkable fit for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 0/25, Health 13/20, Moat 6/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 14/20. Value (0/25) is where the points are missing.
Implied volatility is 35% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (20 of 20 points). Chain open interest is thin - 181 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 475k shares a day on a market cap of $2.8B, with a beta of 0.48 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 14 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -87% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 6 / 15 | moat 4.1/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 35% | |
| Stability | 14 / 20 | 475k shares/day, $2.8B cap, beta 0.48 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
California Water Service Group reports earnings on 28 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Regulated Water
The 12 companies below are the closest to California Water Service Group by market cap within the Regulated Water industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWR American States Water Company | 82.74 | 45.00 | -84% | 51Fair | $3.3B |
| HTO H2O America | 57.30 | 39.94 | -43% | 54Fair | $2.4B |
| MSEX Middlesex Water Company | 53.91 | 28.46 | -89% | 47Weak | $1.0B |
| MSEXP Middlesex Water Company PFD 7% | 492.00 | 151.21 | -225% | 28No options | $822M |
| WTRG Essential Utilities, Inc. | 39.85 | 22.89 | -74% | 60Fair | $11.3B |
| YORW The York Water Company | 31.07 | 16.60 | -87% | 49Weak | $504M |
| CWCO Consolidated Water Co. Ltd. | 28.76 | 37.63 | +24% | 69Good | $461M |
| SBS Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo - SABESP | 6.42 | 108.85 | +94% | 86Prime | $21.9B |
| ARTNB Artesian Resources Corporation | 34.01 | 26.54 | -28% | 25No options | $349M |
| ARTNA Artesian Resources Corporation | 33.16 | 26.17 | -27% | 26No options | $342M |
| CDZI Cadiz Inc. | 3.81 | - | - | 35Weak | $323M |
| AWK American Water Works Company, Inc. | 133.04 | 72.48 | -84% | 54Fair | $26.4B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about CWT
Is CWT undervalued right now?
No: at 46.05 the stock trades 87% above the GLS average fair value of 24.67 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of CWT and what does it mean?
CWT scores 53 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for CWT?
24.67 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 6 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does California Water Service Group report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 28 Oct 2026 (after the close), 12 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does CWT have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 102 listed contracts with 181 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 35% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.