Stock fact sheet · data as of
American States Water Company (AWR): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol AWR · Utilities · Regulated Water · United States · Growth
Is AWR undervalued?
At 88.61 (close of 5 Nov 2026), AWR trades 91% over the GLS average fair value of 46.34, with 0 of 6 models above the price. The stock earns none of the Wheel Score's Value points at this price. That is a statement about price against trailing fundamentals, not about the company's prospects - the Wall Street View and the Growth tab on the Quote page carry the forward numbers.
The 6 models disagree widely: Lynch gives 14.57 while GLS Growth gives 85.42. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
Ranked against every other company we cover, AWR is clearly faster-growing than it is cheap, so the nightly engine files it under Growth (value score 22, growth score 59, out of 100).
Nine valuation models for AWR
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 48.59 | -45% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 58.73 | -34% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 14.57 | -84% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 85.42 | -4% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 30.27 | -66% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 40.44 | -54% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -36.29 | -141% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 89.50 | +1% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is weak: AWR passes 4 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our scans drop the stock at the health filter; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is 8.0 out of 10 - high returns on capital, steady margins and growth that held up through bad years point to a durable business.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 6.6%, ROE 12.5%, ROA 4.8% - with debt at 0.90 times equity and negative free cash flow.
The dividend yield is 2.32% at a payout ratio of 56%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Water Service Utility Operations 72%, Contracted Services 20%, Electric Service Utility Operations 8% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 2/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 4 / 9 | ROIC | 6.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 8.0 / 10 | ROE | 12.5% |
| Debt / equity | 0.90 | ROA | 4.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -5.5% | Payout ratio | 56% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 2 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 31: Weak
AWR scores 31 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50): it fails filter 1, options that actually trade - options too quiet (1,729 open interest, 81 a day); and filter 3, below fair value - trades 91% above our fair value; and filter 4, financially healthy - Piotroski 4/9 (under 6), and the parts are thin too - value weak, premium good, moat strong, health fair, red flags good, option trading weak, stability fair. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 31% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: enough to pass the 25-80% Wheel Trade Filter, but under the 35-60% sweet spot the score rewards most. Chain open interest is thin - 1,729 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 287k shares a day on a market cap of $3.5B, with a beta of 0.54 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that fair.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Fails | options too quiet (1,729 open interest, 81 a day) |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Fails | trades 91% above our fair value |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Fails | Piotroski 4/9 (under 6) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Weak | 91% above fair value | |
| Premium | Good | implied volatility 31% | |
| Moat | Strong | moat 8.0/10 | |
| Health | Fair | Piotroski 4/9 | |
| Red Flags | Good | Red Flags score 80/100 | |
| Option trading | Weak | 81 contracts a day, 1,729 open interest | |
| Stability | Fair | beta 0.54, $3.5B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for AWR in the nightly calendar. The shares go ex-dividend on 16 Nov 2026 (0.5455 per share), so a covered call sold before then carries a small early-assignment risk around that date.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Regulated Water
The 12 companies below are the closest to American States Water Company by market cap within the Regulated Water industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWT California Water Service Group | 49.96 | 25.23 | -98% | 25Weak | $3.1B |
| HTO H2O America | 62.65 | 37.06 | -69% | 35Weak | $3.0B |
| MSEX Middlesex Water Company | 59.20 | 28.34 | -109% | 36Weak | $1.1B |
| WTRG Essential Utilities, Inc. | 45.13 | 23.31 | -94% | 26Weak | $12.8B |
| MSEXP Middlesex Water Company PFD 7% | 492.00 | 134.84 | -265% | 15No options | $822M |
| SBS Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo - SABESP | 4.62 | 54.10 | +91% | 50Fair | $15.8B |
| YORW The York Water Company | 32.26 | 16.59 | -94% | 28Weak | $524M |
| CWCO Consolidated Water Co. Ltd. | 27.39 | 37.70 | +27% | 45Weak | $439M |
| AWK American Water Works Company, Inc. | 149.63 | 69.73 | -115% | 30Weak | $29.8B |
| ARTNA Artesian Resources Corporation | 33.85 | 26.16 | -29% | 19No options | $350M |
| ARTNB Artesian Resources Corporation | 34.92 | 26.62 | -31% | 19No options | $350M |
| CDZIP Cadiz Inc. | 19.41 | 4.42 | -339% | 10No options | $330M |
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A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the top 10 stocks that pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about AWR
Is AWR undervalued right now?
No: at 88.61 the stock trades 91% above the GLS average fair value of 46.34 (data as of 5 Nov 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of AWR and what does it mean?
AWR scores 31 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filters 1, 3, 4. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for AWR?
46.34 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 6 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does American States Water Company report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for AWR in our calendar as of 5 Nov 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does AWR have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 52 listed contracts with 1,729 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 31% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.