Stock fact sheet · data as of
American States Water Company (AWR): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Utilities · Regulated Water · United States · Defensive
Is AWR undervalued?
At 82.74 (close of 16 Oct 2026), AWR trades 84% over the GLS average fair value of 45.00, with 1 of 8 models above the price. The stock earns none of the Wheel Score's Value points at this price. That is a statement about price against trailing fundamentals, not about the company's prospects - the Wall Street View and the Growth tab on the Quote page carry the forward numbers.
The 8 models disagree widely: Lynch gives 14.56 while GLS Growth gives 85.86. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files AWR under Defensive: a low beta, a dividend and positive earnings.
Nine valuation models for AWR
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 48.31 | -42% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 58.72 | -29% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 14.56 | -82% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 85.86 | +4% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 66.36 | -20% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 15.54 | -81% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 30.27 | -63% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 40.42 | -51% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -36.29 | -144% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 89.50 | +8% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - AWR passes 6 of the nine Piotroski tests, which passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is 5.1 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 6.6%, ROE 12.5%, ROA 4.8% - with debt at 0.90 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 0.6%.
The dividend yield is 2.49% at a payout ratio of 55%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Water Service Utility Operations 72%, Contracted Services 20%, Electric Service Utility Operations 8% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 2/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 6.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 5.1 / 10 | ROE | 12.5% |
| Debt / equity | 0.90 | ROA | 4.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 0.6% | Payout ratio | 55% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 2 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 51: Fair
AWR scores 51 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Fair band, 50-64): a usable but unremarkable fit for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 0/25, Health 13/20, Moat 8/15, Premium 17/20, Stability 13/20. Value (0/25) is where the points are missing.
Implied volatility is 32% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (17 of 20 points). Chain open interest is 2,644 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 267k shares a day on a market cap of $3.3B, with a beta of 0.55 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 13 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -84% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 8 / 15 | moat 5.1/10 | |
| Premium | 17 / 20 | implied volatility 32% | |
| Stability | 13 / 20 | 267k shares/day, $3.3B cap, beta 0.55 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Regulated Water
The 12 companies below are the closest to American States Water Company by market cap within the Regulated Water industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWT California Water Service Group | 46.05 | 24.67 | -87% | 53Fair | $2.8B |
| HTO H2O America | 57.30 | 39.94 | -43% | 54Fair | $2.4B |
| MSEX Middlesex Water Company | 53.91 | 28.46 | -89% | 47Weak | $1.0B |
| WTRG Essential Utilities, Inc. | 39.85 | 22.89 | -74% | 60Fair | $11.3B |
| MSEXP Middlesex Water Company PFD 7% | 492.00 | 151.21 | -225% | 28No options | $822M |
| YORW The York Water Company | 31.07 | 16.60 | -87% | 49Weak | $504M |
| SBS Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo - SABESP | 6.42 | 108.85 | +94% | 86Prime | $21.9B |
| CWCO Consolidated Water Co. Ltd. | 28.76 | 37.63 | +24% | 69Good | $461M |
| AWK American Water Works Company, Inc. | 133.04 | 72.48 | -84% | 54Fair | $26.4B |
| ARTNB Artesian Resources Corporation | 34.01 | 26.54 | -28% | 25No options | $349M |
| ARTNA Artesian Resources Corporation | 33.16 | 26.17 | -27% | 26No options | $342M |
| CDZI Cadiz Inc. | 3.81 | - | - | 35Weak | $323M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about AWR
Is AWR undervalued right now?
No: at 82.74 the stock trades 84% above the GLS average fair value of 45.00 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of AWR and what does it mean?
AWR scores 51 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for AWR?
45.00 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does American States Water Company report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does AWR have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 170 listed contracts with 2,644 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 32% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.