Stock fact sheet · data as of
American Express Company (AXP): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Financial - Credit Services · United States · Blend
Is AXP undervalued?
American Express Company (AXP) closed at 313.87 on 16 Oct 2026, close to the GLS average fair value of 317.83 (1.2% below fair value). 3 of the 9 models that produced a number sit above the price, 6 below - the market and our models roughly agree. With little margin of safety either way, the case for or against the stock rests on the quality numbers and the option premium rather than on price.
There is a wide gap between DDM (54.00) and Payback Time (602.23). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files AXP under Blend.
Nine valuation models for AXP
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 200.00 | -36% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 138.58 | -56% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 585.25 | +86% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 227.54 | -28% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 293.07 | -7% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 572.21 | +82% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 602.23 | +92% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 54.00 | -83% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 187.56 | -40% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -322.88 | -203% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 363.27 | +16% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
American Express Company scores 9 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. On durability AXP scores 6.7/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Scorecard on the Quote page's Financials tab shows which ten-year lines are steady and which are not.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 11.9%, ROE 32.4%, ROA 3.6% - with debt at 1.73 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 7.1%.
The dividend yield is 1.17% with a payout ratio of 21% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Global Consumer Services Group 48%, Global Commercial Services 23%, International Card Services 18% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 10/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded Congressional buy was on 15 Sep 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 9 / 9 | ROIC | 11.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 6.7 / 10 | ROE | 32.4% |
| Debt / equity | 1.73 | ROA | 3.6% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 7.1% | Payout ratio | 21% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 10 / 10 |
Wheel Score 80: Prime
With a Wheel Score of 80, American Express Company sits in the Prime band - price, quality and premium all line up for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 13/25, Health 20/20, Moat 10/15, Premium 17/20, Stability 20/20. A high score is a ranking, not a signal: it says nothing about timing, the earnings date or your position size.
Implied volatility is 32% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (17 of 20 points). The option chain is deep: 180,375 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 2.9M shares a day on a market cap of $212.0B, with a beta of 1.08; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 13 / 25 | 1% margin of safety | |
| Health | 20 / 20 | Piotroski 9/9 | |
| Moat | 10 / 15 | moat 6.7/10 | |
| Premium | 17 / 20 | implied volatility 32% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 2.9M shares/day, $212.0B cap, beta 1.08 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
American Express Company reports earnings on 23 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Financial - Credit Services
The 12 companies below are the closest to American Express Company by market cap within the Financial - Credit Services industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COF Capital One Financial Corporation | 198.86 | 479.30 | +59% | 89Prime | $122.0B |
| MA Mastercard Incorporated | 616.32 | 383.39 | -61% | 60Fair | $539.9B |
| V Visa Inc. | 391.43 | 172.73 | -127% | 57Fair | $730.8B |
| PYPL PayPal Holdings, Inc. | 56.10 | 114.06 | +51% | 92Prime | $48.0B |
| IX ORIX Corporation | 36.51 | 2,029.54 | +98% | 39No options | $40.5B |
| SYF Synchrony Financial | 71.72 | 343.54 | +79% | 92Prime | $23.3B |
| AFRM Affirm Holdings, Inc. | 75.92 | 173.51 | +56% | 76Good | $22.5B |
| GPN Global Payments Inc. | 84.17 | 65.78 | -28% | 45Weak | $22.3B |
| SOFI SoFi Technologies, Inc. | 14.22 | 16.96 | +16% | 73Good | $18.4B |
| KKRS KKR Group Finance Co. IX LLC 4. | 15.43 | 58.82 | +74% | 39No options | $13.7B |
| ALLY Ally Financial Inc. | 37.73 | 71.73 | +47% | 86Prime | $11.5B |
| FCFS FirstCash Holdings, Inc | 216.71 | 226.68 | +4% | 75Good | $9.4B |
⚖ Compare AXP with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
Screen the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about AXP
Is AXP undervalued right now?
Not meaningfully: at 313.87 the stock trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 317.83 (1.2% below fair value, data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of AXP and what does it mean?
AXP scores 80 out of 100 (Prime). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for AXP?
317.83 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does American Express Company report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 23 Oct 2026 (before the open), 7 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does AXP have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 1,000 listed contracts with 180,375 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 32% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.