Stock fact sheet · data as of
American Express Company (AXP): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol AXP · Financial Services · Financial - Credit Services · United States · Growth Quality
Is AXP undervalued?
American Express Company (AXP) closed at 332.59 on 5 Nov 2026, close to the GLS average fair value of 310.77 (7.0% above fair value). 3 of the 9 models that produced a number sit above the price, 6 below - the market and our models roughly agree. With little margin of safety either way, the case for or against the stock rests on the quality numbers and the option premium rather than on price.
There is a wide gap between DDM (54.00) and Graham Growth (576.46). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
Ranked against every other company we cover, AXP is clearly faster-growing than it is cheap, so the nightly engine files it under Growth (value score 30, growth score 53, out of 100). It also carries the Quality tag (Quality = moat 7.5+ out of 10 and Piotroski 7+).
Nine valuation models for AXP
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 205.77 | -38% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 147.62 | -56% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 576.46 | +73% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 217.39 | -35% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 298.70 | -10% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 542.07 | +63% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 552.59 | +66% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 54.00 | -84% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 202.33 | -39% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -325.17 | -198% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 357.64 | +8% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
American Express Company scores 8 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter with room to spare. A GLS Moat score of 8.9/10 puts AXP among the more durable businesses we track: over up to ten years its returns on capital have stayed high, its margins steady and its balance sheet sound.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 11.9%, ROE 32.4%, ROA 3.6% - with debt at 1.73 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 6.2%.
The dividend yield is 1.10% with a payout ratio of 20% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Global Consumer Services Group 49%, Global Commercial Services 23%, International Card Services 18% (quarter Q3 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 2/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded Congressional buy was on 15 Sep 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 8 / 9 | ROIC | 11.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 8.9 / 10 | ROE | 32.4% |
| Debt / equity | 1.73 | ROA | 3.6% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 6.2% | Payout ratio | 20% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 2 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 45: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 45 American Express Company sits in the Weak band. It fails filter 3, below fair value - trades 7% above our fair value; Value (weak) is its weakest part.
Implied volatility is 27% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: enough to pass the 25-80% Wheel Trade Filter, but under the 35-60% sweet spot the score rewards most. The option chain is deep: 133,493 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 3.9M shares a day on a market cap of $223.0B, with a beta of 1.08; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that strong.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Fails | trades 7% above our fair value |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Passes | Piotroski F-score 6 or more out of 9 (a company with no score on file passes) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Weak | 7% above fair value | |
| Premium | Fair | implied volatility 27% | |
| Moat | Strong | moat 8.9/10 | |
| Health | Strong | Piotroski 8/9 | |
| Red Flags | Strong | Red Flags score 100/100 | |
| Option trading | Strong | 12,761 contracts a day, 133,493 open interest | |
| Stability | Strong | beta 1.08, $223.0B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 29 Jan 2027, 85 days away - outside the window of a 30-45-day put sold today.
No analyst upgrades or downgrades were recorded in the last 30 days.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Financial - Credit Services
The 12 companies below are the closest to American Express Company by market cap within the Financial - Credit Services industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COF Capital One Financial Corporation | 206.31 | 463.47 | +55% | 91Prime | $126.6B |
| MA Mastercard Incorporated | 672.68 | 390.01 | -72% | 38Weak | $586.3B |
| V Visa Inc. | 436.57 | 228.84 | -91% | 45Weak | $816.0B |
| PYPL PayPal Holdings, Inc. | 60.20 | 106.42 | +43% | 88Prime | $50.0B |
| IX ORIX Corporation | 37.04 | 42.91 | +14% | 33No options | $41.1B |
| GPN Global Payments Inc. | 96.09 | 65.01 | -48% | 35Weak | $25.4B |
| SYF Synchrony Financial | 75.03 | 340.10 | +78% | 52Fair | $24.4B |
| AFRM Affirm Holdings, Inc. | 75.59 | 173.51 | +56% | 47Weak | $22.6B |
| SOFI SoFi Technologies, Inc. | 17.38 | 19.24 | +10% | 41Weak | $22.5B |
| KKRS KKR Group Finance Co. IX LLC 4. | 15.36 | 60.27 | +75% | 31No options | $13.6B |
| ALLY Ally Financial Inc. | 39.36 | 70.99 | +45% | 83Good | $12.0B |
| FCFS FirstCash Holdings, Inc | 193.34 | 232.88 | +17% | 77Good | $8.3B |
⚖ Compare AXP with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about AXP
Is AXP undervalued right now?
Not meaningfully: at 332.59 the stock trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 310.77 (7.0% above fair value, data as of 5 Nov 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of AXP and what does it mean?
AXP scores 45 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filter 3. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for AXP?
310.77 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does American Express Company report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 29 Jan 2027, 85 days from the data date of 5 Nov 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does AXP have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 778 listed contracts with 133,493 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 27% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.