Stock fact sheet · data as of
Mastercard Incorporated (MA): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Financial - Credit Services · United States · High Growth
Is MA undervalued?
Mastercard Incorporated (MA) closed at 616.32 on 16 Oct 2026, 61% above the GLS average fair value of 383.39. 8 of the 9 models that produced a number value the shares below the current price. A gap this wide usually means the market is paying for growth or a story the trailing numbers do not show yet; the models work from filed results, not forecasts, so they are conservative by design.
The 9 models disagree widely: DDM gives 51.21 while Graham Growth gives 692.43. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files MA under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.
Nine valuation models for MA
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 504.51 | -18% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 51.36 | -92% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 692.43 | +12% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 275.75 | -55% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 606.65 | -2% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 465.17 | -25% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 598.61 | -3% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 51.21 | -92% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 204.80 | -67% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -26.09 | -104% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 672.67 | +9% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - MA passes 6 of the nine Piotroski tests, which passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is 9.0 out of 10, built from ten years of revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, share count and returns on capital scored for consistency - a high reading that points to a durable business.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 56.0%, ROE 193.5%, ROA 27.6% - with debt at 2.46 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 3.0%. Debt of 2.46 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
The dividend yield is 0.56% with a payout ratio of 18% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Payment Network 59%, Value Added Services And Solutions 41% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 2/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 56.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 9.0 / 10 | ROE | 193.5% |
| Debt / equity | 2.46 | ROA | 27.6% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 3.0% | Payout ratio | 18% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 2 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 60: Fair
MA scores 60 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Fair band, 50-64): a usable but unremarkable fit for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 0/25, Health 13/20, Moat 14/15, Premium 14/20, Stability 20/20. Value (0/25) is where the points are missing.
Implied volatility is 29% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (14 of 20 points). Chain open interest is 44,627 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 4.2M shares a day on a market cap of $539.9B, with a beta of 0.76 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -61% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 14 / 15 | moat 9.0/10 | |
| Premium | 14 / 20 | implied volatility 29% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 4.2M shares/day, $539.9B cap, beta 0.76 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Mastercard Incorporated reports earnings on 29 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Financial - Credit Services
The 12 companies below are the closest to Mastercard Incorporated by market cap within the Financial - Credit Services industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V Visa Inc. | 391.43 | 172.73 | -127% | 57Fair | $730.8B |
| AXP American Express Company | 313.87 | 317.83 | +1% | 80Prime | $212.0B |
| COF Capital One Financial Corporation | 198.86 | 479.30 | +59% | 89Prime | $122.0B |
| PYPL PayPal Holdings, Inc. | 56.10 | 114.06 | +51% | 92Prime | $48.0B |
| IX ORIX Corporation | 36.51 | 2,029.54 | +98% | 39No options | $40.5B |
| SYF Synchrony Financial | 71.72 | 343.54 | +79% | 92Prime | $23.3B |
| AFRM Affirm Holdings, Inc. | 75.92 | 173.51 | +56% | 76Good | $22.5B |
| GPN Global Payments Inc. | 84.17 | 65.78 | -28% | 45Weak | $22.3B |
| SOFI SoFi Technologies, Inc. | 14.22 | 16.96 | +16% | 73Good | $18.4B |
| KKRS KKR Group Finance Co. IX LLC 4. | 15.43 | 58.82 | +74% | 39No options | $13.7B |
| ALLY Ally Financial Inc. | 37.73 | 71.73 | +47% | 86Prime | $11.5B |
| FCFS FirstCash Holdings, Inc | 216.71 | 226.68 | +4% | 75Good | $9.4B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about MA
Is MA undervalued right now?
No: at 616.32 the stock trades 61% above the GLS average fair value of 383.39 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of MA and what does it mean?
MA scores 60 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for MA?
383.39 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Mastercard Incorporated report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 29 Oct 2026 (before the open), 13 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does MA have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 1,000 listed contracts with 44,627 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 29% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.