Stock fact sheet · data as of
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General · United States · High Growth
Is LLY undervalued?
LLY closed at 1,251.61 on 16 Oct 2026, more than 30% above the GLS average fair value of 720.47. Only 2 of the 9 models that produced a value sit above the price. By our models the shares are priced well beyond what the filed earnings, cash flow and book value support; the Sunday Scan drops names like this at the "below fair value" rule.
There is a wide gap between DDM (98.44) and GLS Growth (1,832.43). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files LLY under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.
Nine valuation models for LLY
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 681.66 | -46% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 159.90 | -87% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 1,296.13 | +4% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 535.58 | -57% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 1,832.43 | +46% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 657.71 | -47% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 889.84 | -29% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 98.44 | -92% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 332.58 | -73% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -32.20 | -103% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 1,345.80 | +8% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Eli Lilly and Company scores 8 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. A GLS Moat score of 9.0/10 puts LLY among the more durable businesses we track: over ten years the metrics the score watches (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, ROIC) have mostly moved the right way, year after year.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 29.9%, ROE 77.8%, ROA 18.4% - with debt at 1.60 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 1.7%.
The dividend yield is 0.53% with a payout ratio of 22% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Cardiometabolic Health 81%, Oncology 11%, Immunology 6% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 8/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 8 / 9 | ROIC | 29.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 9.0 / 10 | ROE | 77.8% |
| Debt / equity | 1.60 | ROA | 18.4% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 1.7% | Payout ratio | 22% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 8 / 10 |
Wheel Score 71: Good
With a Wheel Score of 71 - the Good band - Eli Lilly and Company clears the Sunday Scan's "70 or higher" rule. The parts: Value 0/25, Health 18/20, Moat 14/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 20/20; Value (0/25) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 47% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 98,676 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 3.7M shares a day on a market cap of $1.18T, with a beta of 0.45 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -74% margin of safety | |
| Health | 18 / 20 | Piotroski 8/9 | |
| Moat | 14 / 15 | moat 9.0/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 47% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 3.7M shares/day, $1178.2B cap, beta 0.45 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Eli Lilly and Company reports earnings on 29 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Drug Manufacturers - General
The 12 companies below are the closest to Eli Lilly and Company by market cap within the Drug Manufacturers - General industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JNJ Johnson & Johnson | 253.28 | 139.73 | -81% | 54Fair | $610.4B |
| ABBV AbbVie Inc. | 283.38 | 103.06 | -175% | 65Good | $500.8B |
| MRK Merck & Co., Inc. | 145.35 | 69.51 | -109% | 59Fair | $358.6B |
| NVS Novartis AG | 150.38 | 144.89 | -4% | 68Good | $285.8B |
| AZN AstraZeneca PLC | 166.68 | 184.44 | +10% | 85Prime | $258.5B |
| AMGN Amgen Inc. | 434.03 | 330.55 | -31% | 65Good | $234.7B |
| GILD Gilead Sciences, Inc. | 157.37 | 138.25 | -14% | 45Weak | $195.1B |
| NVO Novo Nordisk A/S | 39.22 | 173.67 | +77% | 91Prime | $174.9B |
| PFE Pfizer Inc. | 29.21 | 19.78 | -48% | 58Fair | $166.5B |
| BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb Company | 60.57 | 76.74 | +21% | 86Prime | $123.7B |
| GSK GSK plc | 49.02 | 43.72 | -12% | 70Good | $98.2B |
| SNY Sanofi | 39.77 | 63.49 | +37% | 86Prime | $97.4B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about LLY
Is LLY undervalued right now?
No: at 1,251.61 the stock trades 74% above the GLS average fair value of 720.47 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of LLY and what does it mean?
LLY scores 71 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for LLY?
720.47 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Eli Lilly and Company report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 29 Oct 2026 (before the open), 13 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does LLY have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 1,000 listed contracts with 98,676 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 47% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.