Stock fact sheet · data as of
Sierra Bancorp (BSRR): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Banks - Regional · United States · Defensive
Is BSRR undervalued?
BSRR closed at 39.15 on 16 Oct 2026, 22% below the GLS average fair value of 50.19 from 9 models (6 of them above the price). That is a moderate margin of safety: the stock passes the "below fair value" rule of the Sunday Scan, and the Wheel Score gives it 22 of the 25 Value points.
There is a wide gap between DDM (15.30) and 10 Cap (92.61). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files BSRR under Defensive: a low beta, a dividend and positive earnings.
Nine valuation models for BSRR
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 43.51 | +11% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 47.20 | +21% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 65.12 | +66% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 18.48 | -53% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 43.92 | +12% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 92.61 | +137% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 86.87 | +122% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 15.30 | -61% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 38.73 | -1% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -219.48 | -661% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 39.00 | -0% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Sierra Bancorp scores 8 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. On durability BSRR scores 6.4/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Scorecard on the Quote page's Financials tab shows which ten-year lines are steady and which are not.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 4.8%, ROE 11.6%, ROA 1.1% - with debt at 1.42 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 8.8%.
The dividend yield is 2.66% at a payout ratio of 30%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Other Service Charges on Deposits 43%, Debit Card 35%, Returned Item and Overdraft Fees 22% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 8/10, insider activity 4/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 8 / 9 | ROIC | 4.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 6.4 / 10 | ROE | 11.6% |
| Debt / equity | 1.42 | ROA | 1.1% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 8.8% | Payout ratio | 30% |
| Institutions | 8 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 4 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 76: Good
With a Wheel Score of 76 - the Good band - Sierra Bancorp clears the Sunday Scan's "70 or higher" rule. The parts: Value 22/25, Health 18/20, Moat 10/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 7/20; Stability (7/20) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 36% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is thin - 6 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 53k shares a day on a market cap of $508M, with a beta of 0.75 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 7 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 22 / 25 | 22% margin of safety | |
| Health | 18 / 20 | Piotroski 8/9 | |
| Moat | 10 / 15 | moat 6.4/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 36% | |
| Stability | 7 / 20 | 53k shares/day, $508M cap, beta 0.75 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Sierra Bancorp reports earnings on 26 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Banks - Regional
The 12 companies below are the closest to Sierra Bancorp by market cap within the Banks - Regional industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FFMR First Farmers Financial Corporation | 37.25 | 61.90 | +40% | 39No options | $517M |
| HBCP Home Bancorp, Inc. | 65.87 | 90.49 | +27% | 80Prime | $518M |
| BWFG Bankwell Financial Group, Inc. | 65.17 | 98.46 | +34% | 39No options | $520M |
| OBT Orange County Bancorp, Inc. | 36.73 | 66.61 | +45% | 39No options | $492M |
| COFS ChoiceOne Financial Services, Inc. | 32.92 | 44.75 | +26% | 39No options | $492M |
| BSVN Bank7 Corp. | 55.49 | 109.57 | +49% | 39No options | $529M |
| FMAO Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc. | 35.12 | 33.94 | -3% | 63Fair | $484M |
| WTBA West Bancorporation, Inc. | 28.35 | 31.49 | +10% | 64Fair | $483M |
| PBAM Private Bancorp of America, Inc. | 84.35 | 133.28 | +37% | 39No options | $483M |
| PDLB Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 19.95 | 48.40 | +59% | 79Good | $483M |
| NPB Northpointe Bancshares, Inc. | 15.62 | 47.93 | +67% | 39No options | $540M |
| CWBC Community West Bancshares | 25.77 | 46.09 | +44% | 70Good | $543M |
⚖ Compare BSRR with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about BSRR
Is BSRR undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, moderately: at 39.15 the stock trades 22% below the average fair value of 50.19 (data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of BSRR and what does it mean?
BSRR scores 76 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for BSRR?
50.19 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Sierra Bancorp report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 26 Oct 2026 (before the open), 10 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does BSRR have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 56 listed contracts with 6 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 36% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.