Stock fact sheet · data as of
Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol CEG · Utilities · Independent Power Producers · United States · Growth
Is CEG undervalued?
At 245.72 (close of 5 Nov 2026), CEG trades 25% over the GLS average fair value of 196.22. 2 of the 9 models land above the price and 7 below. A negative margin of safety fails the "below fair value" Wheel Trade Filter - the models see no discount, which does not make the business a poor one, only the price a full one.
There is a wide gap between DDM (24.53) and GLS Growth (599.23). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
Ranked against every other company we cover, CEG is clearly faster-growing than it is cheap, so the nightly engine files it under Growth (value score 28, growth score 70, out of 100).
Nine valuation models for CEG
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 146.06 | -41% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 141.05 | -43% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 381.57 | +55% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 153.52 | -38% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 599.23 | +144% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 176.71 | -28% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 34.56 | -86% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 24.53 | -90% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 108.76 | -56% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -85.45 | -135% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 341.85 | +39% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Constellation Energy Corporation scores only 4 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, which fails the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter. A reading this low means several of the basic tests - positive earnings, positive operating cash flow, falling debt, no new share issuance - are not met. A GLS Moat score of 4.2/10 is a weak reading: the accounts do not show returns and margins that competitors have been unable to wear down, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 9.9%, ROE 16.0%, ROA 4.1% - with debt at 0.62 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 0.4%.
The dividend yield is 0.68% with a payout ratio of 16% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Power and Power related Revenues 66%, Other Revenues 29%, Capacity Revenues 5% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 1/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 4 / 9 | ROIC | 9.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.2 / 10 | ROE | 16.0% |
| Debt / equity | 0.62 | ROA | 4.1% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 0.4% | Payout ratio | 16% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 10 · 1 / 10 |
Wheel Score 38: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 38 Constellation Energy Corporation sits in the Weak band. It fails filter 3, below fair value - trades 25% above our fair value; and filter 4, financially healthy - Piotroski 4/9 (under 6); Value (weak) is its weakest part.
Implied volatility is 53% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% sweet spot the Wheel Score rewards most: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 129,987 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 6.7M shares a day on a market cap of $87.1B, with a beta of 1.13; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that strong.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Fails | trades 25% above our fair value |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Fails | Piotroski 4/9 (under 6) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Weak | 25% above fair value | |
| Premium | Strong | implied volatility 53% | |
| Moat | Fair | moat 4.2/10 | |
| Health | Fair | Piotroski 4/9 | |
| Red Flags | Weak | Red Flags score 65/100 | |
| Option trading | Strong | 8,883 contracts a day, 129,987 open interest | |
| Stability | Strong | beta 1.13, $87.1B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Constellation Energy Corporation reports earnings on 9 Nov 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk. The shares go ex-dividend on 16 Nov 2026 (0.4265 per share), so a covered call sold before then carries a small early-assignment risk around that date.
No analyst upgrades or downgrades were recorded in the last 30 days.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Independent Power Producers
The 9 companies below are the closest to Constellation Energy Corporation by market cap within the Independent Power Producers industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VST Vistra Corp. | 120.29 | 160.98 | +25% | 51Fair | $40.4B |
| NRG NRG Energy, Inc. | 83.25 | 98.27 | +15% | 46Weak | $17.5B |
| TLN Talen Energy Corporation | 326.78 | 231.71 | -41% | 28Weak | $15.5B |
| TAC TransAlta Corporation | 13.34 | 7.32 | -82% | 37Weak | $4.2B |
| OKLO Oklo Inc. | 22.12 | 5.38 | -311% | 20Weak | $4.1B |
| KEN Kenon Holdings Ltd. | 63.05 | 29.16 | -116% | 34Weak | $3.3B |
| HNRG Hallador Energy Company | 9.61 | - | - | 24Weak | $453M |
| DGXX Digi Power X Inc. | 2.14 | 0.6810 | -214% | 13Weak | $217M |
| TVE Tennessee Valley Authority PARRS A 2029 | 23.38 | 18,712.11 | +100% | 32No options | $12M |
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A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the top 10 stocks that pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about CEG
Is CEG undervalued right now?
No: at 245.72 the stock trades 25% above the GLS average fair value of 196.22 (data as of 5 Nov 2026). The margin of safety is negative.
What is the Wheel Score of CEG and what does it mean?
CEG scores 38 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filters 3, 4. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for CEG?
196.22 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Constellation Energy Corporation report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 9 Nov 2026 (before the open), 4 days from the data date of 5 Nov 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does CEG have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 704 listed contracts with 129,987 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 53% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.