Stock fact sheet · data as of
Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Utilities · Independent Power Producers · United States · High Growth
Is CEG undervalued?
At 275.00 (close of 16 Oct 2026), CEG trades 41% over the GLS average fair value of 194.66, with 2 of 9 models above the price. The stock earns none of the Wheel Score's Value points at this price. That is a statement about price against trailing fundamentals, not about the company's prospects - the Wall Street View and the Growth tab on the Quote page carry the forward numbers.
There is a wide gap between DDM (24.53) and GLS Growth (599.23). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files CEG under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.
Nine valuation models for CEG
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 137.80 | -50% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 141.05 | -49% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 377.72 | +37% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 151.55 | -45% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 599.23 | +118% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 176.71 | -36% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 34.56 | -87% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 24.53 | -91% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 108.76 | -60% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -85.45 | -131% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 352.33 | +28% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Constellation Energy Corporation scores only 4 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, which fails the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. A reading this low means several of the basic tests - positive earnings, positive operating cash flow, falling debt, no new share issuance - are not met. A GLS Moat score of 4.6/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 9.9%, ROE 16.0%, ROA 4.1% - with debt at 0.62 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 0.3%.
The dividend yield is 0.61% with a payout ratio of 16% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Power and Power related Revenues 66%, Other Revenues 29%, Capacity Revenues 5% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 1/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 4 / 9 | ROIC | 9.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.6 / 10 | ROE | 16.0% |
| Debt / equity | 0.62 | ROA | 4.1% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 0.3% | Payout ratio | 16% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 10 · 1 / 10 |
Wheel Score 56: Fair
A Wheel Score of 56 puts Constellation Energy Corporation in the Fair band - below the 70 the Sunday Scan requires. Value 0/25, Health 9/20, Moat 7/15, Premium 20/20 and Stability 20/20; the weakest part is Value (0/25).
Implied volatility is 49% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 130,760 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 4.4M shares a day on a market cap of $97.4B, with a beta of 1.13; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -41% margin of safety | |
| Health | 9 / 20 | Piotroski 4/9 | |
| Moat | 7 / 15 | moat 4.6/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 49% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 4.4M shares/day, $97.4B cap, beta 1.13 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 9 Nov 2026 (before the open), 24 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Independent Power Producers
The 9 companies below are the closest to Constellation Energy Corporation by market cap within the Independent Power Producers industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VST Vistra Corp. | 151.79 | 157.76 | +4% | 71Good | $50.9B |
| NRG NRG Energy, Inc. | 102.86 | 96.16 | -7% | 67Good | $21.6B |
| TLN Talen Energy Corporation | 358.42 | 282.00 | -27% | 45Weak | $17.0B |
| OKLO Oklo Inc. | 30.01 | 5.38 | -458% | 42Weak | $5.6B |
| TAC TransAlta Corporation | 12.66 | 14.97 | +15% | 45Weak | $4.0B |
| KEN Kenon Holdings Ltd. | 63.05 | 29.16 | -116% | 48Weak | $3.3B |
| HNRG Hallador Energy Company | 12.71 | - | - | 45Weak | $599M |
| DGXX Digi Power X Inc. | 2.79 | 0.6620 | -321% | 25Weak | $283M |
| TVE Tennessee Valley Authority PARRS A 2029 | 23.23 | 17,302.65 | +100% | 39No options | $12M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about CEG
Is CEG undervalued right now?
No: at 275.00 the stock trades 41% above the GLS average fair value of 194.66 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of CEG and what does it mean?
CEG scores 56 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for CEG?
194.66 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Constellation Energy Corporation report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 9 Nov 2026 (before the open), 24 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does CEG have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 1,000 listed contracts with 130,760 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 49% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.