Stock fact sheet · data as of
TransAlta Corporation (TAC): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol TAC · Utilities · Independent Power Producers · Canada · Blend
Is TAC undervalued?
TransAlta Corporation (TAC) closed at 13.34 on 5 Nov 2026, 82% above the GLS average fair value of 7.32. 7 of the 9 models that produced a number value the shares below the current price. A gap this wide usually means the market is paying for growth or a story the trailing numbers do not show yet; the models work from filed results, not forecasts, so they are conservative by design.
The 9 models disagree widely: GLS Growth gives 0.7041 while 10 Cap gives 19.04. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
Ranked against every other company we cover, neither cheapness nor growth clearly wins for TAC, so the nightly engine files it under Blend (value score 21, growth score 16, out of 100).
Nine valuation models for TAC
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 6.24 | -53% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 4.09 | -69% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 13.39 | +0% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 5.85 | -56% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 0.7041 | -95% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 19.04 | +43% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 11.26 | -16% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 2.68 | -80% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 2.60 | -80% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -13.28 | -200% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 25.00 | +87% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health TAC scores 7/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is low at 4.3 out of 10: returns on capital, margins or the balance sheet have not shown a lasting edge yet - often a young company, a thin-margin business or one that has only recently turned profitable.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -2.3%, ROE -9.9%, ROA -1.6% - with debt at 3.21 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 5.6%. Debt of 3.21 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
The dividend yield is 1.36% with a payout ratio of 127% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business.
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | -2.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.3 / 10 | ROE | -9.9% |
| Debt / equity | 3.21 | ROA | -1.6% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 5.6% | Payout ratio | 127% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 37: Weak
TAC scores 37 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50): it fails filter 3, below fair value - trades 82% above our fair value, and the parts are thin too - value weak, premium strong, moat fair, health good, red flags good, option trading fair, stability fair. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 48% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% sweet spot the Wheel Score rewards most: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 17,963 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 3.2M shares a day on a market cap of $4.2B, with a beta of 0.47 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that fair.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Fails | trades 82% above our fair value |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Passes | Piotroski F-score 6 or more out of 9 (a company with no score on file passes) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Weak | 82% above fair value | |
| Premium | Strong | implied volatility 48% | |
| Moat | Fair | moat 4.3/10 | |
| Health | Good | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Red Flags | Good | Red Flags score 80/100 | |
| Option trading | Fair | 417 contracts a day, 17,963 open interest | |
| Stability | Fair | beta 0.47, $4.2B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for TAC in the nightly calendar. The shares go ex-dividend on 1 Dec 2026 (0.0500 per share), so a covered call sold before then carries a small early-assignment risk around that date.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Independent Power Producers
The 9 companies below are the closest to TransAlta Corporation by market cap within the Independent Power Producers industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKLO Oklo Inc. | 22.12 | 5.38 | -311% | 20Weak | $4.1B |
| KEN Kenon Holdings Ltd. | 63.05 | 29.16 | -116% | 34Weak | $3.3B |
| TLN Talen Energy Corporation | 326.78 | 231.71 | -41% | 28Weak | $15.5B |
| NRG NRG Energy, Inc. | 83.25 | 98.27 | +15% | 46Weak | $17.5B |
| HNRG Hallador Energy Company | 9.61 | - | - | 24Weak | $453M |
| VST Vistra Corp. | 120.29 | 160.98 | +25% | 51Fair | $40.4B |
| DGXX Digi Power X Inc. | 2.14 | 0.6810 | -214% | 13Weak | $217M |
| CEG Constellation Energy Corporation | 245.72 | 196.22 | -25% | 38Weak | $87.1B |
| TVE Tennessee Valley Authority PARRS A 2029 | 23.38 | 18,712.11 | +100% | 32No options | $12M |
Scan the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the top 10 stocks that pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about TAC
Is TAC undervalued right now?
No: at 13.34 the stock trades 82% above the GLS average fair value of 7.32 (data as of 5 Nov 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of TAC and what does it mean?
TAC scores 37 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filter 3. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for TAC?
7.32 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does TransAlta Corporation report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for TAC in our calendar as of 5 Nov 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does TAC have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 44 listed contracts with 17,963 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 48% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.