Stock fact sheet · data as of
TransAlta Corporation (TAC): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Utilities · Independent Power Producers · Canada · Speculative / Distressed
Is TAC undervalued?
TransAlta Corporation (TAC) closed at 12.66 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 3 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 14.97, so the price sits 15% below it. 1 of the 3 models value the shares above the current price. A margin of safety between 10% and 30% is where most of the Sunday Scan candidates come from.
Only 3 of the nine models produced a value (DCF, 10 Cap, DDM); the others need a dividend, positive free cash flow or positive book value the company does not have yet, so the average rests on a narrow base.
The nightly engine files TAC under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for TAC
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 5.53 | -56% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | 35.41 | +180% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 3.97 | -69% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -18.51 | -246% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 25.00 | +97% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - TAC passes 5 of the nine Piotroski tests, which falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is low at 1.3 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -2.3%, ROE -9.9%, ROA -1.6% - with debt at 3.21 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 7.9%. Debt of 3.21 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
The dividend yield is 1.50% with a payout ratio of -565% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business.
Institutional ownership scores 9/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | -2.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 1.3 / 10 | ROE | -9.9% |
| Debt / equity | 3.21 | ROA | -1.6% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 7.9% | Payout ratio | -565% |
| Institutions | 9 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 45: Weak
TAC scores 45 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50), capped at 45 because the engine files it as Speculative / Distressed. Value 19/25, Health 11/20, Moat 2/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 18/20. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 50% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 32,174 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 1.8M shares a day on a market cap of $4.0B, with a beta of 0.47 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 18 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 19 / 25 | 15% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 2 / 15 | moat 1.3/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 50% | |
| Stability | 18 / 20 | 1.8M shares/day, $4.0B cap, beta 0.47 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (before the open), 18 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Independent Power Producers
The 9 companies below are the closest to TransAlta Corporation by market cap within the Independent Power Producers industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KEN Kenon Holdings Ltd. | 63.05 | 29.16 | -116% | 48Weak | $3.3B |
| OKLO Oklo Inc. | 30.01 | 5.38 | -458% | 42Weak | $5.6B |
| TLN Talen Energy Corporation | 358.42 | 282.00 | -27% | 45Weak | $17.0B |
| NRG NRG Energy, Inc. | 102.86 | 96.16 | -7% | 67Good | $21.6B |
| HNRG Hallador Energy Company | 12.71 | - | - | 45Weak | $599M |
| VST Vistra Corp. | 151.79 | 157.76 | +4% | 71Good | $50.9B |
| DGXX Digi Power X Inc. | 2.79 | 0.6620 | -321% | 25Weak | $283M |
| CEG Constellation Energy Corporation | 275.00 | 194.66 | -41% | 56Fair | $97.4B |
| TVE Tennessee Valley Authority PARRS A 2029 | 23.23 | 17,302.65 | +100% | 39No options | $12M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about TAC
Is TAC undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, moderately: at 12.66 the stock trades 15% below the average fair value of 14.97 (data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of TAC and what does it mean?
TAC scores 45 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for TAC?
14.97 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 3 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does TransAlta Corporation report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (before the open), 18 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does TAC have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 194 listed contracts with 32,174 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 50% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.