Stock fact sheet · data as of
NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Utilities · Independent Power Producers · United States · High Growth
Is NRG undervalued?
NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG) closed at 102.86 on 16 Oct 2026, close to the GLS average fair value of 96.16 (7.0% above fair value). 3 of the 9 models that produced a number sit above the price, 6 below - the market and our models roughly agree. With little margin of safety either way, the case for or against the stock rests on the quality numbers and the option premium rather than on price.
There is a wide gap between DDM (27.44) and DCF (189.48). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files NRG under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.
Nine valuation models for NRG
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 189.48 | +84% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 45.64 | -56% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 173.98 | +69% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 71.87 | -30% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 173.26 | +68% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 80.86 | -21% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 58.18 | -43% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 27.44 | -73% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 44.71 | -57% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -68.08 | -166% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 202.90 | +97% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
NRG Energy, Inc. scores 6 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 3.2/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 4.7%, ROE 51.4%, ROA 3.0% - with debt at 9.97 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 1.6%. Debt of 9.97 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
The dividend yield is 1.81% at a payout ratio of 52%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from East 47%, Texas 37%, West/Other 9% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 10/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 4.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.2 / 10 | ROE | 51.4% |
| Debt / equity | 9.97 | ROA | 3.0% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 1.6% | Payout ratio | 52% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 10 / 10 |
Wheel Score 67: Good
With a Wheel Score of 67 - the Good band - NRG Energy, Inc. falls just short of the Sunday Scan's "70 or higher" rule. The parts: Value 10/25, Health 13/20, Moat 5/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 20/20; Moat (5/15) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 62% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (20 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. The option chain is deep: 188,065 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 2.5M shares a day on a market cap of $21.6B, with a beta of 1.16; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 10 / 25 | -7% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 5 / 15 | moat 3.2/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 62% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 2.5M shares/day, $21.6B cap, beta 1.16 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (before the open), 20 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Independent Power Producers
The 9 companies below are the closest to NRG Energy, Inc. by market cap within the Independent Power Producers industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLN Talen Energy Corporation | 358.42 | 282.00 | -27% | 45Weak | $17.0B |
| VST Vistra Corp. | 151.79 | 157.76 | +4% | 71Good | $50.9B |
| OKLO Oklo Inc. | 30.01 | 5.38 | -458% | 42Weak | $5.6B |
| CEG Constellation Energy Corporation | 275.00 | 194.66 | -41% | 56Fair | $97.4B |
| TAC TransAlta Corporation | 12.66 | 14.97 | +15% | 45Weak | $4.0B |
| KEN Kenon Holdings Ltd. | 63.05 | 29.16 | -116% | 48Weak | $3.3B |
| HNRG Hallador Energy Company | 12.71 | - | - | 45Weak | $599M |
| DGXX Digi Power X Inc. | 2.79 | 0.6620 | -321% | 25Weak | $283M |
| TVE Tennessee Valley Authority PARRS A 2029 | 23.23 | 17,302.65 | +100% | 39No options | $12M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about NRG
Is NRG undervalued right now?
Not meaningfully: at 102.86 the stock trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 96.16 (7.0% above fair value, data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of NRG and what does it mean?
NRG scores 67 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for NRG?
96.16 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does NRG Energy, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (before the open), 20 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does NRG have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 1,000 listed contracts with 188,065 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 62% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.