Stock fact sheet · data as of
Citi Trends, Inc. (CTRN): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Cyclical · Apparel - Retail · United States · Blend
Is CTRN undervalued?
At 49.94 (close of 16 Oct 2026), CTRN trades 144% over the GLS average fair value of 20.51, with 1 of 8 models above the price. The stock earns none of the Wheel Score's Value points at this price. That is a statement about price against trailing fundamentals, not about the company's prospects - the Wall Street View and the Growth tab on the Quote page carry the forward numbers.
There is a wide gap between GLS Growth (3.44) and Graham Growth (51.67). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files CTRN under Blend.
Nine valuation models for CTRN
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 5.52 | -89% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 17.66 | -65% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 51.67 | +3% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 22.58 | -55% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 3.44 | -93% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 37.24 | -25% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 15.89 | -68% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 10.04 | -80% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -19.40 | -139% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 81.00 | +62% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Citi Trends, Inc. scores 6 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 4.5/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 1.5%, ROE 4.5%, ROA 1.1% - with debt at 1.92 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 1.6%.
Citi Trends, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain.
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 1.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.5 / 10 | ROE | 4.5% |
| Debt / equity | 1.92 | ROA | 1.1% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 1.6% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 30: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 30 Citi Trends, Inc. sits in the Weak band. The parts - Value 0/25, Health 13/20, Moat 7/15, Premium 5/20, Stability 5/20 - show where: Value (0/25) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 140%, far above the range the wheel strategy is built for. The premium looks generous; the Wheel Score gives it only 5 of 20 Premium points because moves of that size can blow through any strike. Chain open interest is thin - 1 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 118k shares a day on a market cap of $416M, with a beta of 1.82 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 5 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -144% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 7 / 15 | moat 4.5/10 | |
| Premium | 5 / 20 | implied volatility 140% | |
| Stability | 5 / 20 | 118k shares/day, $416M cap, beta 1.82 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 1 Dec 2026, 46 days away - outside the window of a 30-45-day put sold today.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Apparel - Retail
The 12 companies below are the closest to Citi Trends, Inc. by market cap within the Apparel - Retail industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GCO Genesco Inc. | 37.42 | 116.09 | +68% | 68Good | $405M |
| CAL Caleres, Inc. | 13.14 | 42.46 | +69% | 75Good | $453M |
| SHOE Shoe Station Group Inc. | 13.24 | 32.83 | +60% | 69Good | $359M |
| SFIX Stitch Fix, Inc. | 2.39 | 5.26 | +55% | 45Weak | $319M |
| LE Lands' End, Inc. | 10.28 | 319.56 | +97% | 63Fair | $304M |
| JILL J.Jill, Inc. | 24.68 | 53.48 | +54% | 39No options | $278M |
| CURV Torrid Holdings Inc. | 2.45 | 14.03 | +83% | 45Weak | $244M |
| ZUMZ Zumiez Inc. | 14.12 | 36.18 | +61% | 74Good | $216M |
| DLTH Duluth Holdings Inc. | 4.00 | 10.22 | +61% | 64Fair | $152M |
| CRI Carter's Inc. | 32.64 | 88.45 | +63% | 78Good | $1.2B |
| TLYS Tilly's, Inc. | 4.55 | 3.27 | -39% | 37Weak | $137M |
| AKA a.k.a. Brands Holding Corp. | 10.18 | 29.36 | +65% | 39No options | $112M |
⚖ Compare CTRN with 7 of them All Consumer Cyclical stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about CTRN
Is CTRN undervalued right now?
No: at 49.94 the stock trades 144% above the GLS average fair value of 20.51 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of CTRN and what does it mean?
CTRN scores 30 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for CTRN?
20.51 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Citi Trends, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 1 Dec 2026 (before the open), 46 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does CTRN have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 1 listed contracts with 1 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 140% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.