Stock fact sheet · data as of
Tilly's, Inc. (TLYS): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Cyclical · Apparel - Retail · United States · Blend
Is TLYS undervalued?
Tilly's, Inc. (TLYS) closed at 4.55 on 16 Oct 2026, 39% above the GLS average fair value of 3.27. 5 of the 7 models that produced a number value the shares below the current price. A gap this wide usually means the market is paying for growth or a story the trailing numbers do not show yet; the models work from filed results, not forecasts, so they are conservative by design.
The 7 models disagree widely: Lynch gives 0.1665 while 10 Cap gives 8.71. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files TLYS under Blend.
Nine valuation models for TLYS
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 2.05 | -55% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 0.8649 | -81% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 0.1665 | -96% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 3.97 | -13% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 8.71 | +91% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 6.42 | +41% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 0.7210 | -84% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -3.34 | -173% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 5.50 | +21% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health TLYS scores 7/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is low at 2.2 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -6.8%, ROE -20.5%, ROA -5.6% - with debt at 2.00 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 8.2%. Debt of 2.00 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
Tilly's, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Breakage 51%, Customer Loyalty Program 49% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 9/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded insider buy was on 21 Sep 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | -6.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 2.2 / 10 | ROE | -20.5% |
| Debt / equity | 2.00 | ROA | -5.6% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 8.2% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 9 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 37: Weak
TLYS scores 37 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50). Value 0/25, Health 16/20, Moat 3/15, Premium 11/20, Stability 6/20. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 94% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (11 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is 4,515 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 120k shares a day on a market cap of $137M, with a beta of 0.11 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 6 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -39% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 3 / 15 | moat 2.2/10 | |
| Premium | 11 / 20 | implied volatility 94% | |
| Stability | 6 / 20 | 120k shares/day, $137M cap, beta 0.11 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 2 Dec 2026, 47 days away - outside the window of a 30-45-day put sold today.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Apparel - Retail
The 12 companies below are the closest to Tilly's, Inc. by market cap within the Apparel - Retail industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DLTH Duluth Holdings Inc. | 4.00 | 10.22 | +61% | 64Fair | $152M |
| AKA a.k.a. Brands Holding Corp. | 10.18 | 29.36 | +65% | 39No options | $112M |
| ZUMZ Zumiez Inc. | 14.12 | 36.18 | +61% | 74Good | $216M |
| CURV Torrid Holdings Inc. | 2.45 | 14.03 | +83% | 45Weak | $244M |
| JILL J.Jill, Inc. | 24.68 | 53.48 | +54% | 39No options | $278M |
| LE Lands' End, Inc. | 10.28 | 319.56 | +97% | 63Fair | $304M |
| SFIX Stitch Fix, Inc. | 2.39 | 5.26 | +55% | 45Weak | $319M |
| RENT Rent the Runway, Inc. | 1.71 | 34.24 | +95% | 39No options | $57M |
| SHOE Shoe Station Group Inc. | 13.24 | 32.83 | +60% | 69Good | $359M |
| GCO Genesco Inc. | 37.42 | 116.09 | +68% | 68Good | $405M |
| CTRN Citi Trends, Inc. | 49.94 | 20.51 | -144% | 30Weak | $416M |
| CATO The Cato Corporation | 2.36 | 1.27 | -87% | 35Weak | $43M |
⚖ Compare TLYS with 7 of them All Consumer Cyclical stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about TLYS
Is TLYS undervalued right now?
No: at 4.55 the stock trades 39% above the GLS average fair value of 3.27 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of TLYS and what does it mean?
TLYS scores 37 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for TLYS?
3.27 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 7 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Tilly's, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 2 Dec 2026 (after the close), 47 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does TLYS have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 32 listed contracts with 4,515 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 94% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.