Stock fact sheet · data as of
CVR Energy, Inc. (CVI): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · United States · Blend
Is CVI undervalued?
CVI closed at 61.68 on 16 Oct 2026, more than 30% above the GLS average fair value of 20.30. Only 1 of the 9 models that produced a value sit above the price. By our models the shares are priced well beyond what the filed earnings, cash flow and book value support; the Sunday Scan drops names like this at the "below fair value" rule.
The 9 models disagree widely: GLS Growth gives 2.01 while 10 Cap gives 85.06. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files CVI under Blend.
Nine valuation models for CVI
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 23.96 | -61% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 8.98 | -85% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 11.08 | -82% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 2.75 | -96% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 2.01 | -97% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 85.06 | +38% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 32.90 | -47% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 8.39 | -86% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 7.63 | -88% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -16.19 | -126% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 51.67 | -16% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health CVI scores 8/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is low at 0.6 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 1.1%, ROE 3.7%, ROA 0.7% - with debt at 2.51 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 5.6%. Debt of 2.51 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
The dividend yield is 0.92% with a payout ratio of 10% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Petroleum 93%, Nitrogen Fertilizer 7% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 8 / 9 | ROIC | 1.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 0.6 / 10 | ROE | 3.7% |
| Debt / equity | 2.51 | ROA | 0.7% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 5.6% | Payout ratio | 10% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 10 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 53: Fair
CVI scores 53 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Fair band, 50-64): a usable but unremarkable fit for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 0/25, Health 18/20, Moat 1/15, Premium 17/20, Stability 17/20. Value (0/25) is where the points are missing.
Implied volatility is 72% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (17 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is 17,279 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 932k shares a day on a market cap of $6.2B, with a beta of 0.90; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 17 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -204% margin of safety | |
| Health | 18 / 20 | Piotroski 8/9 | |
| Moat | 1 / 15 | moat 0.6/10 | |
| Premium | 17 / 20 | implied volatility 72% | |
| Stability | 17 / 20 | 932k shares/day, $6.2B cap, beta 0.90 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
The 12 companies below are the closest to CVR Energy, Inc. by market cap within the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IEP Icahn Enterprises L.P. | 6.64 | 18.90 | +65% | 45Weak | $4.7B |
| DK Delek US Holdings, Inc. | 76.88 | 75.16 | -2% | 63Fair | $4.7B |
| UGP Ultrapar Participações S.A. | 7.84 | 30.42 | +74% | 89Prime | $8.6B |
| PARR Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. | 88.67 | 180.79 | +51% | 83Prime | $4.4B |
| APC ARKO Petroleum Corp. Class A Common Stock | 16.06 | 10.77 | -49% | 32No options | $9.6B |
| SUN Sunoco LP | 75.53 | 138.70 | +46% | 73Good | $10.3B |
| PBF PBF Energy Inc. | 89.51 | 115.93 | +23% | 78Good | $10.6B |
| WKC World Kinect Corporation | 36.72 | 12.65 | -190% | 45Weak | $1.9B |
| DINO HF Sinclair Corporation | 124.70 | 134.04 | +7% | 76Good | $22.2B |
| CAPL CrossAmerica Partners LP | 21.40 | 26.02 | +18% | 64Fair | $817M |
| SGU Star Group, L.P. | 12.92 | 60.09 | +78% | 76Good | $424M |
| CLNE Clean Energy Fuels Corp. | 1.51 | 2.47 | +39% | 45Weak | $333M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about CVI
Is CVI undervalued right now?
No: at 61.68 the stock trades 204% above the GLS average fair value of 20.30 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of CVI and what does it mean?
CVI scores 53 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for CVI?
20.30 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does CVR Energy, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does CVI have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 318 listed contracts with 17,279 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 72% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.