Stock fact sheet · data as of
Ultrapar Participações S.A. (UGP): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol UGP · Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · Brazil · ADR · Value Income
UGP is an American depositary share (ADR): the US listing of Ultrapar Participações S.A., whose own shares trade on its home exchange. It trades in dollars during US hours; currency moves and the home country's rules also affect it, and the depositary bank charges a small yearly fee.
Is UGP undervalued?
At 5.60 (close of 5 Nov 2026), UGP trades 51% below the GLS average fair value of 11.33. That average comes from 9 models run on the latest filings, and 7 of them land above the current price. Margins of safety over 30% are the exception rather than the rule across the ~7,400 stocks we value each night, so the number earns Ultrapar Participações S.A. the full Value points in the Wheel Score - and a closer look at what the market is pricing in.
The 9 models disagree widely: Lynch gives 2.36 while 10 Cap gives 29.24. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
Ranked against every other company we cover, UGP is clearly cheaper than it is fast-growing, so the nightly engine files it under Value (value score 68, growth score 47, out of 100). It also carries the Income tag (Income = a dividend yield of 4% or more).
Nine valuation models for UGP
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 8.21 | +47% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 5.95 | +6% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 9.51 | +70% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 2.36 | -58% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 7.36 | +31% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 29.24 | +422% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 27.24 | +386% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 5.50 | -2% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 6.55 | +17% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -2.28 | -141% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 6.85 | +22% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health UGP scores 8/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is 6.0 out of 10: a record that is solid on some of the four parts the score weighs (returns on capital, pricing power, lasting growth, balance sheet) and weaker on others.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 6.5%, ROE 15.7%, ROA 4.9% - with debt at 1.39 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 19.0%.
The dividend yield is high at 6.68% (payout ratio 49%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual.
Institutional ownership scores 1/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded insider buy was on 16 Sep 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 8 / 9 | ROIC | 6.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 6.0 / 10 | ROE | 15.7% |
| Debt / equity | 1.39 | ROA | 4.9% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 19.0% | Payout ratio | 49% |
| Institutions | 1 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 47: Weak
UGP scores 47 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50): it fails filter 1, options that actually trade - options too quiet (918 open interest, 136 a day); and filter 5, can repay its debt - 4.5 years to repay its debt (over 3); and filter 7, a premium worth selling - implied volatility 85% (over 80%), and the parts are thin too - value strong, premium fair, moat good, health strong, red flags strong, option trading weak, stability good. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 85%, above the 80% ceiling of the Wheel Trade Filter on premium. The premium looks generous, but moves of that size can blow through any strike. Chain open interest is thin - 918 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 3.8M shares a day on a market cap of $6.0B, with a beta of 0.26 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that good.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Fails | options too quiet (918 open interest, 136 a day) |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Passes | Trading below the nine-model average fair value (margin of safety above 0) |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Passes | Piotroski F-score 6 or more out of 9 (a company with no score on file passes) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Fails | 4.5 years to repay its debt (over 3) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Fails | implied volatility 85% (over 80%) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Strong | 51% below fair value | |
| Premium | Fair | implied volatility 85% | |
| Moat | Good | moat 6.0/10 | |
| Health | Strong | Piotroski 8/9 | |
| Red Flags | Strong | Red Flags score 95/100 | |
| Option trading | Weak | 136 contracts a day, 918 open interest | |
| Stability | Good | beta 0.26, $6.0B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Ultrapar Participações S.A. reports earnings on 11 Nov 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
No analyst upgrades or downgrades were recorded in the last 30 days.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
The 12 companies below are the closest to Ultrapar Participações S.A. by market cap within the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVI CVR Energy, Inc. | 43.01 | 52.40 | +18% | 45Weak | $4.3B |
| PBF PBF Energy Inc. | 72.62 | 247.83 | +71% | 53Fair | $8.6B |
| DK Delek US Holdings, Inc. | 65.46 | 74.93 | +13% | 39Weak | $4.0B |
| IEP Icahn Enterprises L.P. | 5.34 | 13.36 | +60% | 43Weak | $3.8B |
| PARR Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. | 69.66 | 180.52 | +61% | 79Good | $3.5B |
| DINO HF Sinclair Corporation | 104.57 | 208.52 | +50% | 89Prime | $17.9B |
| WKC World Kinect Corporation | 38.00 | 12.65 | -200% | 31Weak | $1.9B |
| CAPL CrossAmerica Partners LP | 20.27 | 27.61 | +27% | 46Weak | $773M |
| APC ARKO Petroleum Corp. Class A Common Stock | 13.74 | 7.11 | -93% | 19No options | $654M |
| SGU Star Group, L.P. | 13.10 | 60.28 | +78% | 48Weak | $430M |
| PSX Phillips 66 | 259.63 | 548.05 | +53% | 61Fair | $101.3B |
| VLO Valero Energy Corporation | 365.34 | 513.12 | +29% | 91Prime | $101.9B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about UGP
Is UGP undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 5.60 the stock is 51% below the average fair value of 11.33 (data as of 5 Nov 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of UGP and what does it mean?
UGP scores 47 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filters 1, 5, 7. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for UGP?
11.33 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Ultrapar Participações S.A. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 11 Nov 2026 (after the close), 6 days from the data date of 5 Nov 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does UGP have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 8 listed contracts with 918 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 85% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.
Is UGP an ADR?
Yes. UGP is an American depositary share (ADR): the US listing of Ultrapar Participações S.A., whose own shares trade on its home exchange. It trades in dollars during US hours; currency moves and the home country's rules also affect it, and the depositary bank charges a small yearly fee.