HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is DINO undervalued?

At 124.70 (close of 16 Oct 2026), DINO trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 134.04 (7.0% below fair value). 9 models produced a value and they split 3 above the price to 6 below. A stock priced at fair value earns about half of the Wheel Score's Value points; the rest of the score comes from health, moat, premium and stability.

The 9 models disagree widely: DDM gives 29.80 while 10 Cap gives 356.80. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.

The nightly engine files DINO under Defensive: a low beta, a dividend and positive earnings.

Nine valuation models for DINO

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

On financial health DINO scores 8/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is low at 2.0 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.

Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 4.7%, ROE 6.3%, ROA 3.5% - with debt at 0.35 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 11.5%.

The dividend yield is 1.62% at a payout ratio of 29%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Refining 75%, Marketing 13%, Lubricants & Specialties 10% (quarter Q2 FY2026).

Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 6/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded insider buy was on 17 Sep 2026.

Wheel Score 76: Good

DINO scores 76 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Good band, 65-79). The score blends the margin of safety (Value, 15/25), Piotroski health (18/20), the GLS moat (3/15), the option premium on offer (20/20) and how easily the stock trades (20/20). Moat (3/15) is the part holding the score back.

Implied volatility is 58% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 73,546 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.

Volume runs at 1.9M shares a day on a market cap of $22.2B, with a beta of 0.71 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

HF Sinclair Corporation reports earnings on 28 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

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