PBF Energy Inc. (PBF): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is PBF undervalued?

At 89.51 (close of 16 Oct 2026), PBF trades 23% under the GLS average fair value of 115.93. 5 of the 9 models that produced a value land above the price. A discount of this size counts as a positive margin of safety in every GLS screen; whether it is enough depends on the rest of the picture - the health score, the moat and the option premium below.

The 9 models disagree widely: DDM gives 16.19 while 10 Cap gives 246.42. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.

The nightly engine files PBF under Value: positive earnings at a P/E of 18 or less.

Nine valuation models for PBF

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

On financial health PBF scores 8/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is low at 0.8 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.

Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -1.9%, ROE -3.0%, ROA -1.2% - with debt at 0.55 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 7.0%.

The dividend yield is 1.23% with a payout ratio of 9% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Prior to elimination 50%, Refining Group 50%, Logistics Group 0% (quarter Q2 FY2026).

Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.

Wheel Score 78: Good

PBF scores 78 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Good band, 65-79). The score blends the margin of safety (Value, 22/25), Piotroski health (18/20), the GLS moat (1/15), the option premium on offer (17/20) and how easily the stock trades (20/20). Moat (1/15) is the part holding the score back.

Implied volatility is 73% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (17 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. The option chain is deep: 76,886 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.

Volume runs at 3.0M shares a day on a market cap of $10.6B, with a beta of 0.10 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

PBF Energy Inc. reports earnings on 29 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

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