Stock fact sheet · data as of
Etsy, Inc. (ETSY): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail · United States · Blend
Is ETSY undervalued?
Etsy, Inc. (ETSY) closed at 89.18 on 16 Oct 2026, close to the GLS average fair value of 91.93 (3.0% below fair value). 4 of the 7 models that produced a number sit above the price, 3 below - the market and our models roughly agree. With little margin of safety either way, the case for or against the stock rests on the quality numbers and the option premium rather than on price.
There is a wide gap between DCF (4.56) and Payback Time (207.15). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files ETSY under Blend.
Nine valuation models for ETSY
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 4.56 | -95% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | 105.75 | +19% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 44.64 | -50% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 113.83 | +28% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 142.92 | +60% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 207.15 | +132% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 24.67 | -72% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -21.40 | -124% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 85.94 | -4% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Etsy, Inc. scores 7 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. On durability ETSY scores 5.3/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Scorecard on the Quote page's Financials tab shows which ten-year lines are steady and which are not.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 8.2%, ROE -14.8%, ROA 5.8% - with debt at -2.80 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 7.5%.
Etsy, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Marketplace Revenue 68%, Services Revenue 32% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 8.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 5.3 / 10 | ROE | -14.8% |
| Debt / equity | -2.80 | ROA | 5.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 7.5% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 73: Good
With a Wheel Score of 73 - the Good band - Etsy, Inc. clears the Sunday Scan's "70 or higher" rule. The parts: Value 14/25, Health 16/20, Moat 8/15, Premium 18/20, Stability 17/20; Moat (8/15) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 66% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (18 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. The option chain is deep: 171,963 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 6.1M shares a day on a market cap of $8.2B, with a beta of 1.86 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 17 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 14 / 25 | 3% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 8 / 15 | moat 5.3/10 | |
| Premium | 18 / 20 | implied volatility 66% | |
| Stability | 17 / 20 | 6.1M shares/day, $8.2B cap, beta 1.86 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Etsy, Inc. reports earnings on 28 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Specialty Retail
The 12 companies below are the closest to Etsy, Inc. by market cap within the Specialty Retail industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHWY Chewy, Inc. | 21.31 | 26.02 | +18% | 86Prime | $8.6B |
| GLBE Global-e Online Ltd. | 40.23 | 33.03 | -22% | 64Fair | $6.8B |
| MUSA Murphy USA Inc. | 544.73 | 357.54 | -52% | 58Fair | $10.0B |
| VIPS Vipshop Holdings Limited | 12.86 | 210.66 | +94% | 84Prime | $6.1B |
| FIVE Five Below, Inc. | 223.23 | 225.38 | +1% | 79Good | $12.3B |
| DKS DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. | 140.84 | 163.52 | +14% | 76Good | $12.5B |
| GME GameStop Corp. | 28.02 | 38.65 | +28% | 72Good | $14.1B |
| W Wayfair Inc. | 104.78 | 83.75 | -25% | 44Weak | $14.4B |
| BBWI Bath & Body Works, Inc. | 20.44 | 53.29 | +62% | 84Prime | $4.1B |
| TSCO Tractor Supply Company | 32.74 | 21.97 | -49% | 67Good | $17.1B |
| ASO Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | 58.47 | 91.83 | +36% | 87Prime | $3.6B |
| BBY Best Buy Co., Inc. | 94.17 | 93.88 | -0% | 78Good | $19.8B |
⚖ Compare ETSY with 7 of them All Consumer Cyclical stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about ETSY
Is ETSY undervalued right now?
Not meaningfully: at 89.18 the stock trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 91.93 (3.0% below fair value, data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of ETSY and what does it mean?
ETSY scores 73 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for ETSY?
91.93 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 7 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Etsy, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 28 Oct 2026 (after the close), 12 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does ETSY have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 1,000 listed contracts with 171,963 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 66% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.