MINISO Group Holding Limited (MNSO): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is MNSO undervalued?

MINISO Group Holding Limited (MNSO) closed at 10.58 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 9 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 47.12, which puts the price 78% below it. 8 of the 9 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.

There is a wide gap between EPV (6.74) and 10 Cap (135.99). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.

The nightly engine files MNSO under High Yield Income: a dividend yield above 4%.

Nine valuation models for MNSO

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

MINISO Group Holding Limited scores only 4 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, which fails the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. A reading this low means several of the basic tests - positive earnings, positive operating cash flow, falling debt, no new share issuance - are not met. On durability MNSO scores 6.3/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Scorecard on the Quote page's Financials tab shows which ten-year lines are steady and which are not.

Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 5.5%, ROE 11.3%, ROA 4.2% - with debt at 1.07 times equity and negative free cash flow.

The dividend yield is high at 6.29% (payout ratio 0%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Product sales to franchisees 41%, Retail sales in self operated stores 25%, Sales to offline distributors 18% (fiscal year FY2025).

Institutional ownership scores 1/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.

Wheel Score 81: Prime

With a Wheel Score of 81, MINISO Group Holding Limited sits in the Prime band - price, quality and premium all line up for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 25/25, Health 9/20, Moat 9/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 18/20. A high score is a ranking, not a signal: it says nothing about timing, the earnings date or your position size.

Implied volatility is 44% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 12,656 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.

Volume runs at 3.6M shares a day on a market cap of $3.2B, with a beta of 0.09 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 18 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

No upcoming earnings date is recorded for MNSO in the nightly calendar.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

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