Stock fact sheet · data as of
Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail · United States · Value
Is MUSA undervalued?
Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) closed at 544.73 on 16 Oct 2026, 52% above the GLS average fair value of 357.54. 8 of the 9 models that produced a number value the shares below the current price. A gap this wide usually means the market is paying for growth or a story the trailing numbers do not show yet; the models work from filed results, not forecasts, so they are conservative by design.
The 9 models disagree widely: GLS Growth gives 3.14 while 10 Cap gives 939.41. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files MUSA under Value: positive earnings at a P/E of 18 or less.
Nine valuation models for MUSA
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 539.24 | -1% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 178.81 | -67% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 540.05 | -1% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 133.90 | -75% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 3.14 | -99% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 939.41 | +72% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 473.85 | -13% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 37.52 | -93% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 371.94 | -32% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -182.50 | -134% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 636.80 | +17% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health MUSA scores 8/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is low at 4.0 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 12.1%, ROE 75.5%, ROA 10.0% - with debt at 5.22 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 5.4%. Debt of 5.22 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
The dividend yield is 0.47% with a payout ratio of 7% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Product Sales, Petroleum 45%, Product Sales, Petroleum, Retail 40%, Merchandise 9% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 8 / 9 | ROIC | 12.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.0 / 10 | ROE | 75.5% |
| Debt / equity | 5.22 | ROA | 10.0% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 5.4% | Payout ratio | 7% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 58: Fair
MUSA scores 58 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Fair band, 50-64): a usable but unremarkable fit for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 0/25, Health 18/20, Moat 6/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 14/20. Value (0/25) is where the points are missing.
Implied volatility is 42% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 2,255 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 212k shares a day on a market cap of $10.0B, with a beta of 0.25 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 14 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -52% margin of safety | |
| Health | 18 / 20 | Piotroski 8/9 | |
| Moat | 6 / 15 | moat 4.0/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 42% | |
| Stability | 14 / 20 | 212k shares/day, $10.0B cap, beta 0.25 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Murphy USA Inc. reports earnings on 28 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Specialty Retail
The 12 companies below are the closest to Murphy USA Inc. by market cap within the Specialty Retail industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHWY Chewy, Inc. | 21.31 | 26.02 | +18% | 86Prime | $8.6B |
| ETSY Etsy, Inc. | 89.18 | 91.93 | +3% | 73Good | $8.2B |
| FIVE Five Below, Inc. | 223.23 | 225.38 | +1% | 79Good | $12.3B |
| DKS DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. | 140.84 | 163.52 | +14% | 76Good | $12.5B |
| GME GameStop Corp. | 28.02 | 38.65 | +28% | 72Good | $14.1B |
| W Wayfair Inc. | 104.78 | 83.75 | -25% | 44Weak | $14.4B |
| GLBE Global-e Online Ltd. | 40.23 | 33.03 | -22% | 64Fair | $6.8B |
| VIPS Vipshop Holdings Limited | 12.86 | 210.66 | +94% | 84Prime | $6.1B |
| TSCO Tractor Supply Company | 32.74 | 21.97 | -49% | 67Good | $17.1B |
| BBY Best Buy Co., Inc. | 94.17 | 93.88 | -0% | 78Good | $19.8B |
| BBWI Bath & Body Works, Inc. | 20.44 | 53.29 | +62% | 84Prime | $4.1B |
| CASY Casey's General Stores, Inc. | 673.63 | 330.95 | -104% | 64Fair | $24.9B |
⚖ Compare MUSA with 7 of them All Consumer Cyclical stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about MUSA
Is MUSA undervalued right now?
No: at 544.73 the stock trades 52% above the GLS average fair value of 357.54 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of MUSA and what does it mean?
MUSA scores 58 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for MUSA?
357.54 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Murphy USA Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 28 Oct 2026 (after the close), 12 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does MUSA have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 536 listed contracts with 2,255 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 42% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.