Stock fact sheet · data as of
FedEx Corporation (FDX): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics · United States · Value
Is FDX undervalued?
At 295.54 (close of 16 Oct 2026), FDX trades 10% under the GLS average fair value of 328.40. 4 of the 9 models that produced a value land above the price. A discount of this size counts as a positive margin of safety in every GLS screen; whether it is enough depends on the rest of the picture - the health score, the moat and the option premium below.
The 9 models disagree widely: DDM gives 70.26 while Graham Growth gives 647.99. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files FDX under Value: positive earnings at a P/E of 18 or less.
Nine valuation models for FDX
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 309.80 | +5% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 233.15 | -21% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 647.99 | +119% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 253.17 | -14% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 132.99 | -55% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 632.26 | +114% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 471.55 | +60% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 70.26 | -76% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 204.43 | -31% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -166.42 | -156% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 307.55 | +4% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - FDX passes 6 of the nine Piotroski tests, which passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is 6.8 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 5.9%, ROE 14.0%, ROA 4.5% - with debt at 1.36 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 7.3%.
The dividend yield is 1.62% at a payout ratio of 31%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Federal Express 83%, Corporate Reconciling Items And Elimina… 13%, Other International Revenue 4% (quarter Q4 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 7/10 and Congressional trading 3/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 5.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 6.8 / 10 | ROE | 14.0% |
| Debt / equity | 1.36 | ROA | 4.5% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 7.3% | Payout ratio | 31% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 7 · 3 / 10 |
Wheel Score 78: Good
FDX scores 78 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Good band, 65-79). The score blends the margin of safety (Value, 17/25), Piotroski health (13/20), the GLS moat (10/15), the option premium on offer (20/20) and how easily the stock trades (18/20). Health (13/20) is the part holding the score back.
Implied volatility is 39% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 56,935 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 1.0M shares a day on a market cap of $69.9B, with a beta of 1.33 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 18 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 17 / 25 | 10% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 10 / 15 | moat 6.8/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 39% | |
| Stability | 18 / 20 | 1.0M shares/day, $69.9B cap, beta 1.33 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
FedEx Corporation reports earnings on 28 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Integrated Freight & Logistics
The 12 companies below are the closest to FedEx Corporation by market cap within the Integrated Freight & Logistics industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPS United Parcel Service, Inc. | 95.77 | 104.85 | +9% | 71Good | $81.4B |
| EXPD Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. | 198.64 | 76.74 | -159% | 61Fair | $25.8B |
| JBHT J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. | 235.31 | 142.49 | -65% | 59Fair | $22.1B |
| CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. | 143.82 | 67.46 | -113% | 64Fair | $16.8B |
| FDXF FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. | 110.50 | 76.20 | -45% | 53Fair | $16.5B |
| ZTO ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. | 20.36 | 78.91 | +74% | 93Prime | $15.2B |
| LSTR Landstar System, Inc. | 172.46 | 84.01 | -105% | 51Fair | $5.9B |
| GXO GXO Logistics, Inc. | 46.55 | 26.67 | -75% | 59Fair | $5.3B |
| PBI Pitney Bowes Inc. | 16.75 | 49.57 | +66% | 83Prime | $2.3B |
| HUBG Hub Group, Inc. | 27.49 | 26.31 | -4% | 65Good | $1.7B |
| CYRX Cryoport, Inc. | 17.07 | - | - | 45Weak | $865M |
| FWRD Forward Air Corporation | 15.84 | 30.44 | +48% | 45Weak | $535M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about FDX
Is FDX undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, moderately: at 295.54 the stock trades 10% below the average fair value of 328.40 (data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of FDX and what does it mean?
FDX scores 78 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for FDX?
328.40 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does FedEx Corporation report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 28 Oct 2026 (after the close), 12 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does FDX have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 1,000 listed contracts with 56,935 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 39% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.