United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is UPS undervalued?

At 95.77 (close of 16 Oct 2026), UPS trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 104.85 (8.7% below fair value). 9 models produced a value and they split 5 above the price to 4 below. A stock priced at fair value earns about half of the Wheel Score's Value points; the rest of the score comes from health, moat, premium and stability.

The 9 models disagree widely: GLS Growth gives 15.74 while Graham Growth gives 190.60. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.

The nightly engine files UPS under High Yield Income: a dividend yield above 4%.

Nine valuation models for UPS

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

Financial health is weak: UPS passes 4 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our screens drop the stock at the health rule; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is low at 4.2 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.

Returns on capital are high - ROIC 12.4%, ROE 34.3%, ROA 7.6% - with debt at 1.76 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 6.7%.

The dividend yield is high at 6.85% (payout ratio 118%) - a payout above 100% of earnings, which is not covered by profits. A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from U.S. Domestic Package 65%, Rest of world 22%, Supply Chain Solutions ("SCS") 13% (quarter Q2 FY2026).

Institutional ownership scores 8/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.

Wheel Score 71: Good

UPS scores 71 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Good band, 65-79). The score blends the margin of safety (Value, 16/25), Piotroski health (9/20), the GLS moat (6/15), the option premium on offer (20/20) and how easily the stock trades (20/20). Moat (6/15) is the part holding the score back.

Implied volatility is 37% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 425,860 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.

Volume runs at 3.1M shares a day on a market cap of $81.4B, with a beta of 1.05; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

United Parcel Service, Inc. reports earnings on 27 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

Similar stocks in Integrated Freight & Logistics

The 12 companies below are the closest to United Parcel Service, Inc. by market cap within the Integrated Freight & Logistics industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.

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