Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is FOSL undervalued?

Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL) closed at 7.62 on 5 Nov 2026. None of the nine GLS valuation models produced a positive value for the stock - the company lost money over the last twelve months, EPS -1.18, it pays no dividend and its debts exceed what its assets would fetch - so there is no GLS average fair value and no margin of safety to report. The quality, option and event numbers below still apply; the Quote page's Wall Street View shows what analysts expect instead.

The nightly engine files FOSL under Speculative - it is losing money or its Piotroski health score is 3 or lower - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.

Nine valuation models for FOSL

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

Financial health is weak: FOSL passes 3 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our scans drop the stock at the health filter; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is low at 2.0 out of 10: returns on capital, margins or the balance sheet have not shown a lasting edge yet - often a young company, a thin-margin business or one that has only recently turned profitable.

Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -20.3%, ROE -76.1%, ROA -11.4% - with debt at 2.74 times equity and negative free cash flow. Debt of 2.74 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.

Fossil Group, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Watches 46%, Traditional Watches 45%, Jewelry 5% (quarter Q2 FY2026).

Institutional ownership scores 8/10, insider activity 6/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded insider buy was on 20 Aug 2026.

Wheel Score 14: Weak

FOSL scores 14 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50): it fails filter 1, options that actually trade - options too quiet (1,920 open interest, 94 a day); and filter 2, a real business, not a gamble - speculative (a loss, or a weak Piotroski score); and filter 3, below fair value - trades right at our fair value; and filter 4, financially healthy - Piotroski 3/9 (under 6); and filter 5, can repay its debt - debt with no positive cash flow to repay it; and filter 7, a premium worth selling - implied volatility 98% (over 80%); and filter 8, big enough - market cap $451M (under $1.0B), and the parts are thin too - value weak, premium weak, moat weak, health weak, red flags weak, option trading weak, stability weak. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.

Implied volatility is 98%, above the 80% ceiling of the Wheel Trade Filter on premium. The premium looks generous, but moves of that size can blow through any strike. Chain open interest is thin - 1,920 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.

Volume runs at 1.1M shares a day on a market cap of $451M, with a beta of 1.62 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that weak.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

Fossil Group, Inc. reports earnings on 10 Nov 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.

No analyst upgrades or downgrades were recorded in the last 30 days.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

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