Stock fact sheet · data as of
Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Cyclical · Apparel - Footwear & Accessories · United States · Speculative / Distressed
Is FOSL undervalued?
Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL) closed at 6.88 on 16 Oct 2026. None of the nine GLS valuation models produced a positive value for the stock - the company lost money over the last twelve months, EPS -1.18, it pays no dividend and its debts exceed what its assets would fetch - so there is no GLS average fair value and no margin of safety to report. The quality, option and event numbers below still apply; the Quote page's Wall Street View shows what analysts expect instead.
The nightly engine files FOSL under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for FOSL
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -2.28 | -133% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 10.00 | +45% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is weak: FOSL passes 3 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our screens drop the stock at the health rule; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is low at 0.9 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -20.3%, ROE -76.1%, ROA -11.4% - with debt at 2.74 times equity and negative free cash flow. Debt of 2.74 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
Fossil Group, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Watches 46%, Traditional Watches 45%, Jewelry 5% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 7/10, insider activity 6/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 3 / 9 | ROIC | -20.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 0.9 / 10 | ROE | -76.1% |
| Debt / equity | 2.74 | ROA | -11.4% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -10.1% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 7 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 6 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 43: Weak
FOSL scores 43 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50). Value 13/25, Health 7/20, Moat 1/15, Premium 13/20, Stability 10/20. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 90% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (13 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is 3,192 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 546k shares a day on a market cap of $407M, with a beta of 1.56 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 10 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 13 / 25 | 0% margin of safety | |
| Health | 7 / 20 | Piotroski 3/9 | |
| Moat | 1 / 15 | moat 0.9/10 | |
| Premium | 13 / 20 | implied volatility 90% | |
| Stability | 10 / 20 | 546k shares/day, $407M cap, beta 1.56 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 12 Nov 2026 (after the close), 27 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Apparel - Footwear & Accessories
The 12 companies below are the closest to Fossil Group, Inc. by market cap within the Apparel - Footwear & Accessories industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCKY Rocky Brands, Inc. | 45.12 | 36.04 | -25% | 27No options | $338M |
| WEYS Weyco Group, Inc. | 52.46 | 60.67 | +14% | 39No options | $501M |
| DBI Designer Brands Inc. | 6.42 | 14.85 | +57% | 74Good | $328M |
| REF Reformation Inc. (California) | 13.56 | 0.3499 | -3775% | 34Weak | $801M |
| VRA Vera Bradley, Inc. | 5.63 | 20.22 | +72% | 45Weak | $160M |
| MCRAA McRae Industries, Inc. | 50.27 | 34.78 | -45% | 23No options | $114M |
| MCRAB McRae Industries, Inc. | 50.00 | 34.72 | -44% | 23No options | $113M |
| WWW Wolverine World Wide, Inc. | 18.83 | 33.55 | +44% | 80Prime | $1.5B |
| LAKE Lakeland Industries, Inc. | 9.38 | 7.17 | -31% | 34Weak | $93M |
| CPRI Capri Holdings Limited | 15.85 | 17.49 | +9% | 75Good | $1.8B |
| SHOO Steven Madden, Ltd. | 44.74 | 35.40 | -26% | 57Fair | $3.3B |
| CROX Crocs, Inc. | 124.77 | 171.39 | +27% | 81Prime | $6.0B |
⚖ Compare FOSL with 7 of them All Consumer Cyclical stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about FOSL
Is FOSL undervalued right now?
The GLS models could not value FOSL (the company lost money over the last twelve months, EPS -1.18, it pays no dividend and its debts exceed what its assets would fetch), so there is no fair value or margin of safety to compare the price of 6.88 against.
What is the Wheel Score of FOSL and what does it mean?
FOSL scores 43 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for FOSL?
None of the nine GLS models produced a positive value for FOSL (the company lost money over the last twelve months, EPS -1.18, it pays no dividend and its debts exceed what its assets would fetch), so there is no GLS fair value tonight.
When does Fossil Group, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 12 Nov 2026 (after the close), 27 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does FOSL have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 114 listed contracts with 3,192 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 90% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.