Stock fact sheet · data as of
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants · United States · High Growth
Is FWRG undervalued?
FWRG closed at 12.36 on 16 Oct 2026, which is 28% above the GLS average fair value of 9.69 from 6 models. 4 of them value the shares below today's price. Our screens read that as "no margin of safety": the stock is not a value candidate at this price, whatever the quality numbers say.
The 6 models disagree widely: EPV gives 3.21 while GLS Growth gives 17.68. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files FWRG under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.
Nine valuation models for FWRG
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 8.17 | -34% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 16.52 | +34% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 7.22 | -42% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 17.68 | +43% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 5.35 | -57% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 3.21 | -74% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -17.28 | -240% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 15.67 | +27% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - FWRG passes 6 of the nine Piotroski tests, which passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is low at 4.6 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 1.2%, ROE 3.1%, ROA 1.1% - with debt at 1.61 times equity and negative free cash flow.
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Franchisor Owned Outlet 50%, In Restaurant Dining Sales 40%, Third Party Delivery Sales 6% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 1.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.6 / 10 | ROE | 3.1% |
| Debt / equity | 1.61 | ROA | 1.1% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -2.7% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 54: Fair
FWRG scores 54 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Fair band, 50-64): a usable but unremarkable fit for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 1/25, Health 13/20, Moat 7/15, Premium 17/20, Stability 15/20. Value (1/25) is where the points are missing.
Implied volatility is 70% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (17 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is 27,826 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 1.9M shares a day on a market cap of $763M, with a beta of 1.05; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 15 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 1 / 25 | -28% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 7 / 15 | moat 4.6/10 | |
| Premium | 17 / 20 | implied volatility 70% | |
| Stability | 15 / 20 | 1.9M shares/day, $763M cap, beta 1.05 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (before the open), 18 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Restaurants
The 12 companies below are the closest to First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. by market cap within the Restaurants industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNNE Cannae Holdings, Inc. | 16.23 | 8.83 | -84% | 43Weak | $704M |
| BLMN Bloomin' Brands, Inc. | 9.93 | 11.85 | +16% | 68Good | $850M |
| HDL SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING Ltd. American Depositary Shares | 10.78 | 22.32 | +52% | 39No options | $634M |
| PZZA Papa John's International, Inc. | 19.21 | 28.72 | +33% | 70Good | $632M |
| LOCO El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. | 16.32 | 23.10 | +29% | 81Prime | $497M |
| SG Sweetgreen, Inc. | 10.14 | 1.92 | -427% | 31Weak | $1.2B |
| KRUS Kura Sushi USA, Inc. | 39.12 | 23.10 | -69% | 21No options | $475M |
| WEN The Wendy's Company | 6.44 | 23.87 | +73% | 83Prime | $1.2B |
| BJRI BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 60.22 | 56.95 | -6% | 69Good | $1.3B |
| BH Biglari Holdings Inc. | 425.17 | 215.68 | -97% | 21No options | $1.4B |
| DIN Dine Brands Global, Inc. | 33.00 | 31.86 | -4% | 59Fair | $418M |
| NATH Nathan's Famous, Inc. | 101.88 | 73.79 | -38% | 26No options | $417M |
⚖ Compare FWRG with 7 of them All Consumer Cyclical stocks →
Screen the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about FWRG
Is FWRG undervalued right now?
No: at 12.36 the stock trades 28% above the GLS average fair value of 9.69 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). The margin of safety is negative.
What is the Wheel Score of FWRG and what does it mean?
FWRG scores 54 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for FWRG?
9.69 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 6 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (before the open), 18 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does FWRG have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 96 listed contracts with 27,826 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 70% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.