Stock fact sheet · data as of
Bloomin' Brands, Inc. (BLMN): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants · United States · Blend
Is BLMN undervalued?
Bloomin' Brands, Inc. (BLMN) closed at 9.93 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 8 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 11.85, so the price sits 16% below it. 4 of the 8 models value the shares above the current price. A margin of safety between 10% and 30% is where most of the Sunday Scan candidates come from.
There is a wide gap between GLS Growth (0.9464) and 10 Cap (41.55). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files BLMN under Blend.
Nine valuation models for BLMN
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 10.04 | +1% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 6.06 | -39% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 12.26 | +23% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 4.89 | -51% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 0.9464 | -90% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 41.55 | +318% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 15.49 | +56% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 3.59 | -64% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -30.16 | -404% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 10.81 | +9% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Bloomin' Brands, Inc. scores 6 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 2.0/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 0.2%, ROE 1.6%, ROA 0.2% - with debt at 6.06 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 18.2%. Debt of 6.06 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
Bloomin' Brands, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Food and Beverage 98%, Franchise and Other Revenue 2% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 0.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 2.0 / 10 | ROE | 1.6% |
| Debt / equity | 6.06 | ROA | 0.2% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 18.2% | Payout ratio | 92% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 10 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 68: Good
With a Wheel Score of 68 - the Good band - Bloomin' Brands, Inc. falls just short of the Sunday Scan's "70 or higher" rule. The parts: Value 19/25, Health 13/20, Moat 3/15, Premium 17/20, Stability 16/20; Moat (3/15) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 74% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (17 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is 27,500 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 3.6M shares a day on a market cap of $850M, with a beta of 1.26 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 16 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 19 / 25 | 16% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 3 / 15 | moat 2.0/10 | |
| Premium | 17 / 20 | implied volatility 74% | |
| Stability | 16 / 20 | 3.6M shares/day, $850M cap, beta 1.26 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (before the open), 20 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Restaurants
The 12 companies below are the closest to Bloomin' Brands, Inc. by market cap within the Restaurants industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FWRG First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. | 12.36 | 9.69 | -28% | 54Fair | $763M |
| CNNE Cannae Holdings, Inc. | 16.23 | 8.83 | -84% | 43Weak | $704M |
| HDL SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING Ltd. American Depositary Shares | 10.78 | 22.32 | +52% | 39No options | $634M |
| PZZA Papa John's International, Inc. | 19.21 | 28.72 | +33% | 70Good | $632M |
| SG Sweetgreen, Inc. | 10.14 | 1.92 | -427% | 31Weak | $1.2B |
| WEN The Wendy's Company | 6.44 | 23.87 | +73% | 83Prime | $1.2B |
| BJRI BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 60.22 | 56.95 | -6% | 69Good | $1.3B |
| BH Biglari Holdings Inc. | 425.17 | 215.68 | -97% | 21No options | $1.4B |
| LOCO El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. | 16.32 | 23.10 | +29% | 81Prime | $497M |
| CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store | 67.41 | 29.15 | -131% | 50Fair | $1.5B |
| KRUS Kura Sushi USA, Inc. | 39.12 | 23.10 | -69% | 21No options | $475M |
| ARCO Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. | 8.06 | 20.68 | +61% | 81Prime | $1.7B |
⚖ Compare BLMN with 7 of them All Consumer Cyclical stocks →
Screen the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about BLMN
Is BLMN undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, moderately: at 9.93 the stock trades 16% below the average fair value of 11.85 (data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of BLMN and what does it mean?
BLMN scores 68 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for BLMN?
11.85 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Bloomin' Brands, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (before the open), 20 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does BLMN have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 98 listed contracts with 27,500 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 74% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.