Stock fact sheet · data as of
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (ARCO): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants · Uruguay · Defensive
Is ARCO undervalued?
ARCO has a margin of safety of 61%: the stock closed at 8.06 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 20.68. 8 of the 9 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our screens treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.
There is a wide gap between DDM (3.97) and DCF (39.29). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files ARCO under Defensive: a low beta, a dividend and positive earnings.
Nine valuation models for ARCO
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 39.29 | +387% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 10.40 | +29% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 35.28 | +338% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 12.86 | +60% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 27.56 | +242% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 30.04 | +273% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 13.19 | +64% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 3.97 | -51% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 13.54 | +68% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -10.74 | -233% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 14.00 | +74% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. scores 6 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 4.1/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 7.0%, ROE 27.5%, ROA 5.5% - with debt at 2.91 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 5.6%. Debt of 2.91 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
The dividend yield is 3.35% at a payout ratio of 20%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Franchise 50%, Franchise, Rental Income 50%, Franchise, Initial Fees 0% (fiscal year FY2025).
Institutional ownership scores 6/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 7.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.1 / 10 | ROE | 27.5% |
| Debt / equity | 2.91 | ROA | 5.5% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 5.6% | Payout ratio | 20% |
| Institutions | 6 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 81: Prime
With a Wheel Score of 81, Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. sits in the Prime band - price, quality and premium all line up for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 25/25, Health 13/20, Moat 6/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 17/20. A high score is a ranking, not a signal: it says nothing about timing, the earnings date or your position size.
Implied volatility is 40% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 9,112 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 2.0M shares a day on a market cap of $1.7B, with a beta of 0.49 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 17 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 61% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 6 / 15 | moat 4.1/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 40% | |
| Stability | 17 / 20 | 2.0M shares/day, $1.7B cap, beta 0.49 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 18 Nov 2026 (before the open), 33 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Restaurants
The 12 companies below are the closest to Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. by market cap within the Restaurants industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store | 67.41 | 29.15 | -131% | 50Fair | $1.5B |
| BH Biglari Holdings Inc. | 425.17 | 215.68 | -97% | 21No options | $1.4B |
| BJRI BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 60.22 | 56.95 | -6% | 69Good | $1.3B |
| WEN The Wendy's Company | 6.44 | 23.87 | +73% | 83Prime | $1.2B |
| SG Sweetgreen, Inc. | 10.14 | 1.92 | -427% | 31Weak | $1.2B |
| CHA Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares | 12.44 | 63.22 | +80% | 39No options | $2.4B |
| SHAK Shake Shack Inc. | 68.77 | 27.84 | -147% | 54Fair | $2.8B |
| WING Wingstop Inc. | 122.90 | 137.21 | +10% | 69Good | $3.3B |
| BLMN Bloomin' Brands, Inc. | 9.93 | 11.85 | +16% | 68Good | $850M |
| FWRG First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. | 12.36 | 9.69 | -28% | 54Fair | $763M |
| CNNE Cannae Holdings, Inc. | 16.23 | 8.83 | -84% | 43Weak | $704M |
| HDL SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING Ltd. American Depositary Shares | 10.78 | 22.32 | +52% | 39No options | $634M |
⚖ Compare ARCO with 7 of them All Consumer Cyclical stocks →
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A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about ARCO
Is ARCO undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 8.06 the stock is 61% below the average fair value of 20.68 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of ARCO and what does it mean?
ARCO scores 81 out of 100 (Prime). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for ARCO?
20.68 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 18 Nov 2026 (before the open), 33 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does ARCO have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 64 listed contracts with 9,112 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 40% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.