Stock fact sheet · data as of
Graco Inc. (GGG): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Industrials · Industrial - Machinery · United States · Blend
Is GGG undervalued?
Graco Inc. (GGG) closed at 81.78 on 16 Oct 2026, 54% above the GLS average fair value of 53.01. 7 of the 9 models that produced a number value the shares below the current price. A gap this wide usually means the market is paying for growth or a story the trailing numbers do not show yet; the models work from filed results, not forecasts, so they are conservative by design.
There is a wide gap between DDM (17.07) and Payback Time (94.23). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files GGG under Blend.
Nine valuation models for GGG
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 74.36 | -9% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 33.26 | -59% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 68.40 | -16% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 21.27 | -74% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 42.03 | -49% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 90.66 | +11% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 94.23 | +15% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 17.07 | -79% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 35.83 | -56% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 5.26 | -94% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 95.00 | +16% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Graco Inc. scores 6 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 8.7/10 puts GGG among the more durable businesses we track: over ten years the metrics the score watches (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, ROIC) have mostly moved the right way, year after year.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 19.2%, ROE 19.7%, ROA 15.9% - with debt at 0.02 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 4.7%.
The dividend yield is 1.42% with a payout ratio of 35% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Contractor 55%, Industrial 45% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded insider buy was on 10 Sep 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 19.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 8.7 / 10 | ROE | 19.7% |
| Debt / equity | 0.02 | ROA | 15.9% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 4.7% | Payout ratio | 35% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 61: Fair
A Wheel Score of 61 puts Graco Inc. in the Fair band - below the 70 the Sunday Scan requires. Value 0/25, Health 13/20, Moat 13/15, Premium 15/20 and Stability 20/20; the weakest part is Value (0/25).
Implied volatility is 30% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (15 of 20 points). Chain open interest is 4,148 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 1.8M shares a day on a market cap of $13.2B, with a beta of 0.88; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -54% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 13 / 15 | moat 8.7/10 | |
| Premium | 15 / 20 | implied volatility 30% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 1.8M shares/day, $13.2B cap, beta 0.88 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Graco Inc. reports earnings on 21 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk. The shares go ex-dividend on 19 Oct 2026 (0.2950 per share), so a covered call sold before then carries a small early-assignment risk around that date.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Industrial - Machinery
The 12 companies below are the closest to Graco Inc. by market cap within the Industrial - Machinery industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LII Lennox International Inc. | 358.50 | 480.26 | +25% | 85Prime | $12.4B |
| INIO INNIO N.V. Ordinary Shares | 16.50 | 6.18 | -167% | 40Weak | $12.4B |
| CR Crane Company | 205.73 | 95.92 | -114% | 51Fair | $11.9B |
| MAIR Madison Air Solutions Corporation | 23.47 | 4.80 | -389% | 42Weak | $11.8B |
| WTS Watts Water Technologies, Inc. | 352.10 | 189.99 | -85% | 61Fair | $11.8B |
| GNRC Generac Holdings Inc. | 198.40 | 143.86 | -38% | 58Fair | $11.7B |
| RRX Regal Rexnord Corporation | 157.06 | 118.20 | -33% | 64Fair | $10.5B |
| DCI Donaldson Company, Inc. | 87.77 | 57.36 | -53% | 61Fair | $10.2B |
| IEX IDEX Corporation | 236.42 | 123.83 | -91% | 60Fair | $17.4B |
| ITT ITT Inc. | 201.04 | 129.35 | -55% | 58Fair | $18.0B |
| NDSN Nordson Corporation | 328.80 | 162.22 | -103% | 55Fair | $18.3B |
| FLS Flowserve Corporation | 70.77 | 69.84 | -1% | 74Good | $9.0B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about GGG
Is GGG undervalued right now?
No: at 81.78 the stock trades 54% above the GLS average fair value of 53.01 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of GGG and what does it mean?
GGG scores 61 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for GGG?
53.01 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Graco Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 21 Oct 2026 (after the close), 5 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does GGG have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 162 listed contracts with 4,148 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 30% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.