Stock fact sheet · data as of
Madison Air Solutions Corporation (MAIR): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Industrials · Industrial - Machinery · United States · Speculative / Distressed
Is MAIR undervalued?
Madison Air Solutions Corporation (MAIR) closed at 23.47 on 16 Oct 2026, 389% above the GLS average fair value of 4.80. 7 of the 7 models that produced a number value the shares below the current price. A gap this wide usually means the market is paying for growth or a story the trailing numbers do not show yet; the models work from filed results, not forecasts, so they are conservative by design.
There is a wide gap between GLS Growth (1.09) and 10 Cap (8.19). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files MAIR under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for MAIR
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 6.19 | -74% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 7.07 | -70% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 2.69 | -89% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 1.09 | -95% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 8.19 | -65% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 5.96 | -75% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 2.43 | -90% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -13.87 | -159% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 44.63 | +90% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Madison Air Solutions Corporation scores only 0 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, which fails the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. A reading this low means several of the basic tests - positive earnings, positive operating cash flow, falling debt, no new share issuance - are not met. On durability MAIR scores 5.5/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Scorecard on the Quote page's Financials tab shows which ten-year lines are steady and which are not.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 0.5%, ROE -83.2%, ROA 0.4% - with debt at -152.71 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 1.1%.
Madison Air Solutions Corporation pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Commercial 66%, Residential 34% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 3/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 0 / 9 | ROIC | 0.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 5.5 / 10 | ROE | -83.2% |
| Debt / equity | -152.71 | ROA | 0.4% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 1.1% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 3 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 10 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 42: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 42 Madison Air Solutions Corporation sits in the Weak band. The parts - Value 0/25, Health 0/20, Moat 8/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 14/20 - show where: Value (0/25) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 59% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 9,251 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 2.8M shares a day on a market cap of $11.8B, with a beta of 4.75 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 14 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -389% margin of safety | |
| Health | 0 / 20 | Piotroski 0/9 | |
| Moat | 8 / 15 | moat 5.5/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 59% | |
| Stability | 14 / 20 | 2.8M shares/day, $11.8B cap, beta 4.75 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Madison Air Solutions Corporation reports earnings on 29 Oct 2026 - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Industrial - Machinery
The 12 companies below are the closest to Madison Air Solutions Corporation by market cap within the Industrial - Machinery industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTS Watts Water Technologies, Inc. | 352.10 | 189.99 | -85% | 61Fair | $11.8B |
| GNRC Generac Holdings Inc. | 198.40 | 143.86 | -38% | 58Fair | $11.7B |
| CR Crane Company | 205.73 | 95.92 | -114% | 51Fair | $11.9B |
| INIO INNIO N.V. Ordinary Shares | 16.50 | 6.18 | -167% | 40Weak | $12.4B |
| LII Lennox International Inc. | 358.50 | 480.26 | +25% | 85Prime | $12.4B |
| GGG Graco Inc. | 81.78 | 53.01 | -54% | 61Fair | $13.2B |
| RRX Regal Rexnord Corporation | 157.06 | 118.20 | -33% | 64Fair | $10.5B |
| DCI Donaldson Company, Inc. | 87.77 | 57.36 | -53% | 61Fair | $10.2B |
| FLS Flowserve Corporation | 70.77 | 69.84 | -1% | 74Good | $9.0B |
| PNR Pentair plc | 52.11 | 70.59 | +26% | 89Prime | $8.3B |
| MOD Modine Manufacturing Company | 154.01 | 77.34 | -99% | 50Fair | $8.2B |
| AOS A. O. Smith Corporation | 59.47 | 74.36 | +20% | 82Prime | $8.1B |
Screen the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about MAIR
Is MAIR undervalued right now?
No: at 23.47 the stock trades 389% above the GLS average fair value of 4.80 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of MAIR and what does it mean?
MAIR scores 42 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for MAIR?
4.80 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 7 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Madison Air Solutions Corporation report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 29 Oct 2026, 13 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does MAIR have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 98 listed contracts with 9,251 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 59% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.