Stock fact sheet · data as of
Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Industrials · Engineering & Construction · United States · Speculative / Distressed
Is GVA undervalued?
At 108.78 (close of 16 Oct 2026), GVA trades 18% over the GLS average fair value of 92.37. 1 of the 3 models land above the price and 2 below. A negative margin of safety costs Value points in the Wheel Score (5 of 25 here) - the models see no discount, which does not make the business a poor one, only the price a full one.
Only 3 of the nine models produced a value (DCF, 10 Cap, DDM); the others need a dividend, positive free cash flow or positive book value the company does not have yet, so the average rests on a narrow base.
The nightly engine files GVA under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for GVA
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 4.18 | -96% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | 265.27 | +144% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 7.65 | -93% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -22.77 | -121% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 159.67 | +47% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is weak: GVA passes 2 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our screens drop the stock at the health rule; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is 6.1 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 6.9%, ROE 16.4%, ROA 4.8% - with debt at 1.38 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 9.9%.
The dividend yield is 0.48% with a payout ratio of -14% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Construction 83%, Materials 17% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 2 / 9 | ROIC | 6.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 6.1 / 10 | ROE | 16.4% |
| Debt / equity | 1.38 | ROA | 4.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 9.9% | Payout ratio | -14% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 45: Weak
GVA scores 45 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50), capped at 45 because the engine files it as Speculative / Distressed. Value 5/25, Health 4/20, Moat 9/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 16/20. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 49% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is thin - 943 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 739k shares a day on a market cap of $4.8B, with a beta of 1.35 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 16 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 5 / 25 | -18% margin of safety | |
| Health | 4 / 20 | Piotroski 2/9 | |
| Moat | 9 / 15 | moat 6.1/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 49% | |
| Stability | 16 / 20 | 739k shares/day, $4.8B cap, beta 1.35 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Granite Construction Incorporated reports earnings on 29 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Engineering & Construction
The 12 companies below are the closest to Granite Construction Incorporated by market cap within the Engineering & Construction industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KBR KBR, Inc. | 36.44 | 65.77 | +45% | 84Prime | $4.6B |
| ROAD Construction Partners, Inc. | 80.84 | 73.66 | -10% | 66Good | $4.6B |
| MYRG MYR Group Inc. | 285.57 | 266.09 | -7% | 71Good | $4.4B |
| AGX Argan, Inc. | 367.16 | 392.92 | +7% | 69Good | $5.2B |
| PRIM Primoris Services Corporation | 78.03 | 72.47 | -8% | 68Good | $4.2B |
| TPC Tutor Perini Corporation | 79.48 | 114.12 | +30% | 78Good | $4.2B |
| ECG Everus Construction Group, Inc. | 111.66 | 117.18 | +5% | 69Good | $5.7B |
| LGN Legence Corp. Class A Common stock | 45.30 | 49.16 | +8% | 45Weak | $6.3B |
| FLR Fluor Corporation | 47.67 | 8.01 | -495% | 45Weak | $6.4B |
| EXPO Exponent, Inc. | 72.28 | 38.35 | -88% | 60Fair | $3.4B |
| STN Stantec Inc. | 67.11 | 98.56 | +32% | 86Prime | $7.5B |
| ACM Aecom | 59.09 | 51.70 | -14% | 64Fair | $7.6B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about GVA
Is GVA undervalued right now?
No: at 108.78 the stock trades 18% above the GLS average fair value of 92.37 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). The margin of safety is negative.
What is the Wheel Score of GVA and what does it mean?
GVA scores 45 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for GVA?
92.37 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 3 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Granite Construction Incorporated report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 29 Oct 2026 (before the open), 13 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does GVA have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 260 listed contracts with 943 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 49% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.