Stock fact sheet · data as of
HCI Group, Inc. (HCI): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty · United States · High Growth
Is HCI undervalued?
At 196.38 (close of 16 Oct 2026), HCI trades 67% below the GLS average fair value of 592.11. That average comes from 9 models run on the latest filings, and 7 of them land above the current price. Margins of safety over 30% are the exception rather than the rule across the ~7,400 stocks we value each night, so the number earns HCI Group, Inc. the full Value points in the Wheel Score - and a closer look at what the market is pricing in.
The 9 models disagree widely: DDM gives 23.54 while GLS Growth gives 1,666.72. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files HCI under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.
Nine valuation models for HCI
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 215.64 | +10% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 240.89 | +23% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 439.23 | +124% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 108.90 | -45% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 1,666.72 | +749% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 906.38 | +362% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 1,425.19 | +626% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 23.54 | -88% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 302.50 | +54% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 18.47 | -91% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 230.00 | +17% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - HCI passes 6 of the nine Piotroski tests, which passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is 6.6 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 27.0%, ROE 28.7%, ROA 11.8% - with debt at 0.07 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 16.8%.
The dividend yield is 0.81% with a payout ratio of 0% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Real Estate Operations 100% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 27.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 6.6 / 10 | ROE | 28.7% |
| Debt / equity | 0.07 | ROA | 11.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 16.8% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 10 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 79: Good
HCI scores 79 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Good band, 65-79). The score blends the margin of safety (Value, 25/25), Piotroski health (13/20), the GLS moat (10/15), the option premium on offer (20/20) and how easily the stock trades (11/20). Stability (11/20) is the part holding the score back.
Implied volatility is 36% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 5,909 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 170k shares a day on a market cap of $2.4B, with a beta of 1.05; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 11 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 67% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 10 / 15 | moat 6.6/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 36% | |
| Stability | 11 / 20 | 170k shares/day, $2.4B cap, beta 1.05 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (after the close), 20 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Insurance - Property & Casualty
The 12 companies below are the closest to HCI Group, Inc. by market cap within the Insurance - Property & Casualty industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFSIA AmTrust Financial Services, Inc. | 13.13 | 3,008,968.27 | +100% | 39No options | $2.6B |
| SKWD Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. | 59.35 | 170.73 | +65% | 80Prime | $2.6B |
| AFSIB AmTrust Financial Services, Inc. | 13.59 | 3,008,968.27 | +100% | 39No options | $2.7B |
| AFSIC AmTrust Financial Services, Inc. | 14.40 | 3,008,968.27 | +100% | 39No options | $2.8B |
| AFFS AmTrust Financial Services, Inc. | 15.05 | 3,008,968.27 | +100% | 39No options | $3.0B |
| SLDE Slide Insurance Holdings, Inc. Common Stock | 25.67 | 94.18 | +73% | 93Prime | $3.0B |
| AFFT AmTrust Financial Services Inc 7.5 % Notes 2015-15.9.55 | 15.30 | 3,008,968.27 | +100% | 39No options | $3.0B |
| AFSIM AmTrust Financial Services, Inc. | 15.30 | 3,008,968.27 | +100% | 39No options | $3.0B |
| AFSIP AmTrust Financial Services, Inc. | 14.17 | 3,008,968.27 | +100% | 39No options | $3.0B |
| AFSIN AmTrust Financial Services, Inc. | 13.98 | 3,008,968.27 | +100% | 39No options | $3.1B |
| PRCH Porch Group, Inc. | 16.44 | 18.12 | +9% | 45Weak | $1.9B |
| HMN Horace Mann Educators Corporation | 45.98 | 154.93 | +70% | 83Prime | $1.9B |
⚖ Compare HCI with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about HCI
Is HCI undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 196.38 the stock is 67% below the average fair value of 592.11 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of HCI and what does it mean?
HCI scores 79 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for HCI?
592.11 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does HCI Group, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (after the close), 20 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does HCI have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 250 listed contracts with 5,909 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 36% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.