Stock fact sheet · data as of
Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty · United States · Defensive
Is HMN undervalued?
HMN has a margin of safety of 70%: the stock closed at 45.98 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 154.93. 7 of the 9 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our screens treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.
There is a wide gap between DDM (21.04) and Payback Time (429.14). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files HMN under Defensive: a low beta, a dividend and positive earnings.
Nine valuation models for HMN
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 123.72 | +169% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 59.87 | +30% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 112.20 | +144% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 38.95 | -15% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 265.39 | +477% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 295.94 | +544% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 429.14 | +833% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 21.04 | -54% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 48.17 | +5% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -340.33 | -840% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 59.00 | +28% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Horace Mann Educators Corporation scores 7 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. On durability HMN scores 6.9/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Scorecard on the Quote page's Financials tab shows which ten-year lines are steady and which are not.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 7.8%, ROE 10.9%, ROA 1.1% - with debt at 0.40 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 30.4%.
The dividend yield is 3.11% at a payout ratio of 32%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Property And Casualty 60%, Life And Retirement 40% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 7/10 and Congressional trading 10/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded Congressional buy was on 20 Aug 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 7.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 6.9 / 10 | ROE | 10.9% |
| Debt / equity | 0.40 | ROA | 1.1% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 30.4% | Payout ratio | 32% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 7 · 10 / 10 |
Wheel Score 83: Prime
With a Wheel Score of 83, Horace Mann Educators Corporation sits in the Prime band - price, quality and premium all line up for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 25/25, Health 16/20, Moat 10/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 12/20. A high score is a ranking, not a signal: it says nothing about timing, the earnings date or your position size.
Implied volatility is 44% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is thin - 105 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 309k shares a day on a market cap of $1.9B, with a beta of 0.10 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 12 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 70% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 10 / 15 | moat 6.9/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 44% | |
| Stability | 12 / 20 | 309k shares/day, $1.9B cap, beta 0.10 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (after the close), 18 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Insurance - Property & Casualty
The 12 companies below are the closest to Horace Mann Educators Corporation by market cap within the Insurance - Property & Casualty industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRCH Porch Group, Inc. | 16.44 | 18.12 | +9% | 45Weak | $1.9B |
| AFGB American Financial Group, Inc. | 21.70 | 123.75 | +82% | 39No options | $1.8B |
| AFGD American Financial Group, Inc. | 21.55 | 123.60 | +83% | 39No options | $1.8B |
| KMPR Kemper Corporation | 28.42 | 89.68 | +68% | 45Weak | $1.7B |
| KMPB Kemper Corporation 5.875% Fixed | 24.76 | 90.04 | +73% | 39No options | $1.7B |
| STC Stewart Information Services Corporation | 50.84 | 67.19 | +24% | 75Good | $1.6B |
| SAFT Safety Insurance Group, Inc. | 103.94 | 196.31 | +47% | 72Good | $1.5B |
| AFGC American Financial Group, Inc. | 18.09 | 120.23 | +85% | 39No options | $1.5B |
| UFCS United Fire Group, Inc. | 55.48 | 141.85 | +61% | 75Good | $1.4B |
| HCI HCI Group, Inc. | 196.38 | 592.11 | +67% | 79Good | $2.4B |
| AFGE American Financial Group, Inc. | 16.16 | 118.35 | +86% | 39No options | $1.3B |
| AFSIA AmTrust Financial Services, Inc. | 13.13 | 3,008,968.27 | +100% | 39No options | $2.6B |
⚖ Compare HMN with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
Screen the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about HMN
Is HMN undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 45.98 the stock is 70% below the average fair value of 154.93 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of HMN and what does it mean?
HMN scores 83 out of 100 (Prime). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for HMN?
154.93 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Horace Mann Educators Corporation report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (after the close), 18 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does HMN have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 98 listed contracts with 105 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 44% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.