Stock fact sheet · data as of
Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (HRTG): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol HRTG · Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty · United States · Blend
Is HRTG undervalued?
At 35.73 (close of 5 Nov 2026), HRTG trades 82% below the GLS average fair value of 200.07. That average comes from 8 models run on the latest filings, and 7 of them land above the current price. Margins of safety over 30% are the exception rather than the rule across the ~7,400 stocks we value each night, so the number earns Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. the full Value points in the Wheel Score - and a closer look at what the market is pricing in.
There is a wide gap between Lynch (29.06) and GLS Growth (444.81). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
Ranked against every other company we cover, neither cheapness nor growth clearly wins for HRTG, so the nightly engine files it under Blend (value score 77, growth score 60, out of 100).
Nine valuation models for HRTG
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 216.69 | +506% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 57.40 | +61% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 117.22 | +228% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 29.06 | -19% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 444.81 | +1145% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 251.66 | +604% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 403.03 | +1028% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 80.73 | +126% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -8.75 | -124% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 36.50 | +2% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. scores 8 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter with room to spare. On durability HRTG scores 6.0/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Moat Score tab on the Quote page's Financials view shows which of the four parts hold it back.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 32.3%, ROE 38.7%, ROA 8.9% - with debt at 0.20 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 28.5%.
Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Reportable 100% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 8/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 8 / 9 | ROIC | 32.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 6.0 / 10 | ROE | 38.7% |
| Debt / equity | 0.20 | ROA | 8.9% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 28.5% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 8 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 83: Good
With a Wheel Score of 83 - the Good band - Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. passes all 9 Wheel Trade Filters. How it ranks: value strong, premium strong, moat good, health strong, red flags good, option trading fair, stability fair. Option trading (fair) is the part keeping it out of the Prime band.
Implied volatility is 49% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% sweet spot the Wheel Score rewards most: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 4,328 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 259k shares a day on a market cap of $1.1B, with a beta of 0.98; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that fair.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Passes | Trading below the nine-model average fair value (margin of safety above 0) |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Passes | Piotroski F-score 6 or more out of 9 (a company with no score on file passes) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Strong | 82% below fair value | |
| Premium | Strong | implied volatility 49% | |
| Moat | Good | moat 6.0/10 | |
| Health | Strong | Piotroski 8/9 | |
| Red Flags | Good | Red Flags score 80/100 | |
| Option trading | Fair | 1,881 contracts a day, 4,328 open interest | |
| Stability | Fair | beta 0.98, $1.1B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for HRTG in the nightly calendar.
No analyst upgrades or downgrades were recorded in the last 30 days.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Insurance - Property & Casualty
The 12 companies below are the closest to Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. by market cap within the Insurance - Property & Casualty industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOW Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. | 34.10 | 98.36 | +65% | 33No options | $1.1B |
| ASIC Ategrity Specialty Holdings LLC | 24.46 | 60.93 | +60% | 34No options | $1.2B |
| HIPO Hippo Holdings Inc. | 35.88 | 60.26 | +40% | 44Weak | $955M |
| UFCS United Fire Group, Inc. | 49.32 | 147.50 | +67% | 47Weak | $1.3B |
| AFGE American Financial Group, Inc. | 15.55 | 120.70 | +87% | 35No options | $1.3B |
| UVE Universal Insurance Holdings, Inc. | 48.78 | 213.39 | +77% | 54Fair | $1.3B |
| DGICB Donegal Group Inc. | 24.19 | 60.52 | +60% | 32No options | $791M |
| MHLA Maiden Holdings, Ltd. 6.625 NT 2046 | 9.13 | 13.73 | +34% | 23No options | $790M |
| STC Stewart Information Services Corporation | 47.10 | 64.63 | +27% | 44Weak | $1.4B |
| ROOT Root, Inc. | 57.15 | 175.19 | +67% | 35Weak | $782M |
| AFGC American Financial Group, Inc. | 17.36 | 122.48 | +86% | 35No options | $1.4B |
| TRUP Trupanion, Inc. | 33.68 | 24.09 | -40% | 34Weak | $1.5B |
⚖ Compare HRTG with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about HRTG
Is HRTG undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 35.73 the stock is 82% below the average fair value of 200.07 (data as of 5 Nov 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of HRTG and what does it mean?
HRTG scores 83 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for HRTG?
200.07 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for HRTG in our calendar as of 5 Nov 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does HRTG have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 24 listed contracts with 4,328 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 49% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.