Stock fact sheet · data as of
Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (HRTG): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty · United States · Value
Is HRTG undervalued?
At 36.61 (close of 16 Oct 2026), HRTG trades 82% below the GLS average fair value of 198.51. That average comes from 8 models run on the latest filings, and 7 of them land above the current price. Margins of safety over 30% are the exception rather than the rule across the ~7,400 stocks we value each night, so the number earns Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. the full Value points in the Wheel Score - and a closer look at what the market is pricing in.
There is a wide gap between Lynch (28.69) and GLS Growth (439.08). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files HRTG under Value: positive earnings at a P/E of 18 or less.
Nine valuation models for HRTG
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 220.39 | +502% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 55.25 | +51% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 115.71 | +216% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 28.69 | -22% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 439.08 | +1099% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 250.10 | +583% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 399.14 | +990% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 79.69 | +118% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -8.75 | -124% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 36.50 | -0% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. scores 7 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. On durability HRTG scores 6.0/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Scorecard on the Quote page's Financials tab shows which ten-year lines are steady and which are not.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 32.3%, ROE 38.7%, ROA 8.9% - with debt at 0.20 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 27.8%.
Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Reportable 100% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 8/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 32.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 6.0 / 10 | ROE | 38.7% |
| Debt / equity | 0.20 | ROA | 8.9% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 27.8% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 8 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 79: Good
With a Wheel Score of 79 - the Good band - Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. clears the Sunday Scan's "70 or higher" rule. The parts: Value 25/25, Health 16/20, Moat 9/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 9/20; Stability (9/20) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 59% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 4,604 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 162k shares a day on a market cap of $1.1B, with a beta of 0.92; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 9 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 82% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 9 / 15 | moat 6.0/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 59% | |
| Stability | 9 / 20 | 162k shares/day, $1.1B cap, beta 0.92 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026, 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Insurance - Property & Casualty
The 12 companies below are the closest to Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. by market cap within the Insurance - Property & Casualty industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOW Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. | 34.01 | 94.11 | +64% | 39No options | $1.1B |
| TRUP Trupanion, Inc. | 26.73 | 23.57 | -13% | 63Fair | $1.2B |
| HIPO Hippo Holdings Inc. | 35.26 | 130.72 | +73% | 68Good | $930M |
| ASIC Ategrity Specialty Holdings LLC | 26.87 | 67.08 | +60% | 39No options | $1.3B |
| UVE Universal Insurance Holdings, Inc. | 46.70 | 199.23 | +77% | 83Prime | $1.3B |
| AFGE American Financial Group, Inc. | 16.16 | 118.35 | +86% | 39No options | $1.3B |
| UFCS United Fire Group, Inc. | 55.48 | 141.85 | +61% | 75Good | $1.4B |
| AFGC American Financial Group, Inc. | 18.09 | 120.23 | +85% | 39No options | $1.5B |
| SAFT Safety Insurance Group, Inc. | 103.94 | 196.31 | +47% | 72Good | $1.5B |
| MHLA Maiden Holdings, Ltd. 6.625 NT 2046 | 8.91 | 13.70 | +35% | 38No options | $772M |
| STC Stewart Information Services Corporation | 50.84 | 67.19 | +24% | 75Good | $1.6B |
| KMPB Kemper Corporation 5.875% Fixed | 24.76 | 90.04 | +73% | 39No options | $1.7B |
⚖ Compare HRTG with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about HRTG
Is HRTG undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 36.61 the stock is 82% below the average fair value of 198.51 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of HRTG and what does it mean?
HRTG scores 79 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for HRTG?
198.51 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026, 19 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does HRTG have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 94 listed contracts with 4,604 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 59% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.