Stock fact sheet · data as of
United Fire Group, Inc. (UFCS): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol UFCS · Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty · United States · Blend
Is UFCS undervalued?
At 49.32 (close of 5 Nov 2026), UFCS trades 67% below the GLS average fair value of 147.50. That average comes from 9 models run on the latest filings, and 6 of them land above the current price. Margins of safety over 30% are the exception rather than the rule across the ~7,400 stocks we value each night, so the number earns United Fire Group, Inc. the full Value points in the Wheel Score - and a closer look at what the market is pricing in.
There is a wide gap between DDM (11.18) and Payback Time (466.57). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
Ranked against every other company we cover, neither cheapness nor growth clearly wins for UFCS, so the nightly engine files it under Blend (value score 73, growth score 74, out of 100).
Nine valuation models for UFCS
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 19.94 | -60% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 64.94 | +32% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 95.98 | +95% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 26.87 | -46% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 319.99 | +549% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 263.99 | +435% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 466.57 | +846% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 11.18 | -77% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 58.08 | +18% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -32.59 | -166% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 60.00 | +22% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
United Fire Group, Inc. scores 7 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter with room to spare. A GLS Moat score of 3.4/10 is a weak reading: the accounts do not show returns and margins that competitors have been unable to wear down, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 10.9%, ROE 12.6%, ROA 3.1% - with debt at 0.16 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 24.3%.
The dividend yield is 1.54% at a payout ratio of 14%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Property And Casualty 100% (fiscal year FY2023).
Institutional ownership scores 9/10, insider activity 2/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 10.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.4 / 10 | ROE | 12.6% |
| Debt / equity | 0.16 | ROA | 3.1% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 24.3% | Payout ratio | 14% |
| Institutions | 9 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 2 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 47: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 47 United Fire Group, Inc. sits in the Weak band. It fails filter 1, options that actually trade - options too quiet (25 open interest, 4 a day); Option trading (weak) is its weakest part.
Implied volatility is 41% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% sweet spot the Wheel Score rewards most: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is thin - 25 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 390k shares a day on a market cap of $1.3B, with a beta of 0.47 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that fair.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Fails | options too quiet (25 open interest, 4 a day) |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Passes | Trading below the nine-model average fair value (margin of safety above 0) |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Passes | Piotroski F-score 6 or more out of 9 (a company with no score on file passes) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Strong | 67% below fair value | |
| Premium | Strong | implied volatility 41% | |
| Moat | Weak | moat 3.4/10 | |
| Health | Good | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Red Flags | Good | Red Flags score 82/100 | |
| Option trading | Weak | 4 contracts a day, 25 open interest | |
| Stability | Fair | beta 0.47, $1.3B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for UFCS in the nightly calendar.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Insurance - Property & Casualty
The 12 companies below are the closest to United Fire Group, Inc. by market cap within the Insurance - Property & Casualty industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFGE American Financial Group, Inc. | 15.55 | 120.70 | +87% | 35No options | $1.3B |
| UVE Universal Insurance Holdings, Inc. | 48.78 | 213.39 | +77% | 54Fair | $1.3B |
| ASIC Ategrity Specialty Holdings LLC | 24.46 | 60.93 | +60% | 34No options | $1.2B |
| BOW Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. | 34.10 | 98.36 | +65% | 33No options | $1.1B |
| STC Stewart Information Services Corporation | 47.10 | 64.63 | +27% | 44Weak | $1.4B |
| AFGC American Financial Group, Inc. | 17.36 | 122.48 | +86% | 35No options | $1.4B |
| TRUP Trupanion, Inc. | 33.68 | 24.09 | -40% | 34Weak | $1.5B |
| HRTG Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. | 35.73 | 200.07 | +82% | 83Good | $1.1B |
| SAFT Safety Insurance Group, Inc. | 104.35 | 201.26 | +48% | 41Weak | $1.5B |
| HIPO Hippo Holdings Inc. | 35.88 | 60.26 | +40% | 44Weak | $955M |
| AFGB American Financial Group, Inc. | 20.41 | 125.47 | +84% | 35No options | $1.7B |
| AFGD American Financial Group, Inc. | 20.74 | 125.79 | +84% | 35No options | $1.7B |
⚖ Compare UFCS with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
Scan the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the top 10 stocks that pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about UFCS
Is UFCS undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 49.32 the stock is 67% below the average fair value of 147.50 (data as of 5 Nov 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of UFCS and what does it mean?
UFCS scores 47 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filter 1. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for UFCS?
147.50 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does United Fire Group, Inc. report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for UFCS in our calendar as of 5 Nov 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does UFCS have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 34 listed contracts with 25 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 41% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.