Stock fact sheet · data as of
American Financial Group, Inc. (AFGE): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty · United States · High Yield Income
Is AFGE undervalued?
AFGE has a margin of safety of 86%: the stock closed at 16.16 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 118.35. 6 of the 9 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our screens treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.
There is a wide gap between GLS Growth (9.00) and 10 Cap (361.23). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files AFGE under High Yield Income: a dividend yield above 4%.
Nine valuation models for AFGE
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 341.66 | +2014% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 122.50 | +658% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 31.10 | +92% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 10.49 | -35% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 9.00 | -44% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 361.23 | +2135% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 70.40 | +336% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 104.62 | +547% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 14.15 | -12% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -190.98 | -1282% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 0.0000 | -100% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
American Financial Group, Inc. scores 6 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 4.1/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 12.7%, ROE 17.5%, ROA 2.6% - with debt at 0.38 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 11.8%.
The dividend yield is high at 4.88% (payout ratio 60%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Property and Casualty Insurance 95%, Corporate and Other 5% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 1/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 12.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.1 / 10 | ROE | 17.5% |
| Debt / equity | 0.38 | ROA | 2.6% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 11.8% | Payout ratio | 60% |
| Institutions | 1 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 39: No options
No options are listed on American Financial Group, Inc. in our nightly snapshot. The Wheel Score is therefore capped at 39 (it reads 39) and the stock is left out of every options screen; the fair value and health figures above are still useful for a plain stock position.
Volume runs at 12k shares a day on a market cap of $1.3B, with a beta of 0.69 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 9 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 86% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 6 / 15 | moat 4.1/10 | |
| Premium | 0 / 20 | no option data | |
| Stability | 9 / 20 | 12k shares/day, $1.3B cap, beta 0.69 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Insurance - Property & Casualty
The 12 companies below are the closest to American Financial Group, Inc. by market cap within the Insurance - Property & Casualty industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UVE Universal Insurance Holdings, Inc. | 46.70 | 199.23 | +77% | 83Prime | $1.3B |
| ASIC Ategrity Specialty Holdings LLC | 26.87 | 67.08 | +60% | 39No options | $1.3B |
| UFCS United Fire Group, Inc. | 55.48 | 141.85 | +61% | 75Good | $1.4B |
| AFGC American Financial Group, Inc. | 18.09 | 120.23 | +85% | 39No options | $1.5B |
| SAFT Safety Insurance Group, Inc. | 103.94 | 196.31 | +47% | 72Good | $1.5B |
| STC Stewart Information Services Corporation | 50.84 | 67.19 | +24% | 75Good | $1.6B |
| TRUP Trupanion, Inc. | 26.73 | 23.57 | -13% | 63Fair | $1.2B |
| BOW Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. | 34.01 | 94.11 | +64% | 39No options | $1.1B |
| HRTG Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. | 36.61 | 198.51 | +82% | 79Good | $1.1B |
| KMPB Kemper Corporation 5.875% Fixed | 24.76 | 90.04 | +73% | 39No options | $1.7B |
| KMPR Kemper Corporation | 28.42 | 89.68 | +68% | 45Weak | $1.7B |
| AFGD American Financial Group, Inc. | 21.55 | 123.60 | +83% | 39No options | $1.8B |
⚖ Compare AFGE with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about AFGE
Is AFGE undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 16.16 the stock is 86% below the average fair value of 118.35 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of AFGE and what does it mean?
AFGE has no listed options in our nightly snapshot, so it cannot be wheeled; its Wheel Score is capped at 39 and shown as "No options".
What is the GLS fair value for AFGE?
118.35 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does American Financial Group, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does AFGE have listed options, and how liquid are they?
No. The nightly options snapshot found no listed contracts on AFGE, so the wheel strategy cannot be run on it and the Wheel Score is capped at 39.