Stock fact sheet · data as of
Kosmos Energy Ltd. (KOS): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol KOS · Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production · United States · Speculative
Is KOS undervalued?
Kosmos Energy Ltd. (KOS) closed at 2.25 on 5 Nov 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 1 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 11.33, which puts the price 80% below it. 1 of the 1 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.
The average is built from just 1 models (10 Cap) - the rest returned nothing because an input they need (dividends, free cash flow, book value) is zero or negative - so treat it with more caution than usual.
The nightly engine files KOS under Speculative - it is losing money or its Piotroski health score is 3 or lower - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for KOS
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | 11.33 | +403% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -6.28 | -379% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 2.69 | +20% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Kosmos Energy Ltd. scores 5 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that falls one point short of the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 2.8/10 is a weak reading: the accounts do not show returns and margins that competitors have been unable to wear down, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -19.5%, ROE -132.4%, ROA -14.9% - with debt at 5.80 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 13.6%. Debt of 5.80 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
Kosmos Energy Ltd. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Ghana 58%, U.S. Gulf Of Mexico 18%, Mauritania And Senegal 15% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 9/10, insider activity 8/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | -19.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 2.8 / 10 | ROE | -132.4% |
| Debt / equity | 5.80 | ROA | -14.9% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 13.6% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 9 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 8 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 43: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 43 Kosmos Energy Ltd. sits in the Weak band. It fails filter 2, a real business, not a gamble - speculative (a loss, or a weak Piotroski score); and filter 4, financially healthy - Piotroski 5/9 (under 6); and filter 5, can repay its debt - 21.8 years to repay its debt (over 3); and filter 9, not a penny stock - price 2.25 (under $5); Moat (weak) is its weakest part.
Implied volatility is 79% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% top of the sweet spot. It still passes the 25-80% filter, but the Wheel Score rewards it less because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. The option chain is deep: 105,736 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 27.1M shares a day on a market cap of $1.3B, with a beta of 0.79 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that fair.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Fails | speculative (a loss, or a weak Piotroski score) |
| 3 | Below fair value | Passes | Trading below the nine-model average fair value (margin of safety above 0) |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Fails | Piotroski 5/9 (under 6) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Fails | 21.8 years to repay its debt (over 3) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Fails | price 2.25 (under $5) |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Strong | 80% below fair value | |
| Premium | Good | implied volatility 79% | |
| Moat | Weak | moat 2.8/10 | |
| Health | Fair | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Red Flags | Weak | Red Flags score 67/100 | |
| Option trading | Strong | 7,072 contracts a day, 105,736 open interest | |
| Stability | Fair | beta 0.79, $1.3B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for KOS in the nightly calendar.
Analysts downgraded KOS 2 times in the last 30 days with no upgrades; the latest action was a downgrade by Jefferies on 28 Oct 2026.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
The 12 companies below are the closest to Kosmos Energy Ltd. by market cap within the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DMLP Dorchester Minerals, L.P. | 27.81 | 33.65 | +17% | 76Good | $1.4B |
| KRP Kimbell Royalty Partners, LP | 15.48 | 22.61 | +32% | 74Good | $1.6B |
| VET Vermilion Energy Inc. | 10.75 | 25.35 | +58% | 46Weak | $1.6B |
| MNR Mach Natural Resources LP | 10.02 | 38.45 | +74% | 75Good | $1.7B |
| NEXT Nextdecade Corp | 6.25 | - | - | 28Weak | $1.7B |
| TBN Tamboran Resources Corp | 28.10 | 3.56 | -689% | 8No options | $982M |
| HPK HighPeak Energy, Inc. | 7.57 | 7.12 | -6% | 21Weak | $957M |
| DEC Diversified Energy Company PLC | 13.33 | 225.79 | +94% | 32No options | $943M |
| REPX Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. | 42.88 | 71.28 | +40% | 51Fair | $930M |
| BKV BKV Corporation | 19.10 | 41.00 | +53% | 74Good | $2.1B |
| NOG Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. | 22.27 | 26.49 | +16% | 45Weak | $2.4B |
| TXO TXO Partners, L.P. | 13.09 | 34.48 | +62% | 42Weak | $726M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about KOS
Is KOS undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 2.25 the stock is 80% below the average fair value of 11.33 (data as of 5 Nov 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of KOS and what does it mean?
KOS scores 43 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filters 2, 4, 5, 9. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for KOS?
11.33 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 1 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Kosmos Energy Ltd. report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for KOS in our calendar as of 5 Nov 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does KOS have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 24 listed contracts with 105,736 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 79% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.