Stock fact sheet · data as of
Diversified Energy Company PLC (DEC): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol DEC · Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production · United States · Blend Income
Is DEC undervalued?
Diversified Energy Company PLC (DEC) closed at 13.33 on 5 Nov 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 9 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 225.79, which puts the price 94% below it. 9 of the 9 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.
The 9 models disagree widely: DDM gives 17.07 while GLS Growth gives 495.17. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
Ranked against every other company we cover, neither cheapness nor growth clearly wins for DEC, so the nightly engine files it under Blend (value score 84, growth score 91, out of 100). It also carries the Income tag (Income = a dividend yield of 4% or more).
Nine valuation models for DEC
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 362.12 | +2617% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 41.30 | +210% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 462.65 | +3371% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 202.21 | +1417% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 495.17 | +3615% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 125.82 | +844% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 235.93 | +1670% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 17.07 | +28% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 89.87 | +574% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -63.92 | -580% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 24.50 | +84% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health DEC scores 7/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is low at 3.6 out of 10: returns on capital, margins or the balance sheet have not shown a lasting edge yet - often a young company, a thin-margin business or one that has only recently turned profitable.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 8.5%, ROE 34.7%, ROA 5.5% - with debt at 3.08 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 48.7%. Debt of 3.08 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
The dividend yield is high at 8.70% (payout ratio 17%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Oil and Condensate 58%, Natural Gas 38%, Natural Gas, Midstream 2% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 9/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded insider buy was on 30 Sep 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 8.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.6 / 10 | ROE | 34.7% |
| Debt / equity | 3.08 | ROA | 5.5% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 48.7% | Payout ratio | 17% |
| Institutions | 9 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 32: No options
DEC has no listed options in the nightly snapshot, so there is nothing to sell and the stock cannot be wheeled however good the business. It fails the first Wheel Trade Filter (options that actually trade), so the score stays under 70 and is shown as "No options" (32 here). The valuation and quality numbers still apply to owning the shares outright.
Volume runs at 868k shares a day on a market cap of $943M, with a beta of 0.34 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that fair.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Fails | no listed options |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Passes | Trading below the nine-model average fair value (margin of safety above 0) |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Passes | Piotroski F-score 6 or more out of 9 (a company with no score on file passes) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Fails | 5.8 years to repay its debt (over 3) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Fails | no implied volatility |
| 8 | Big enough | Fails | market cap $943M (under $1.0B) |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Strong | 94% below fair value | |
| Premium | Weak | no option data | |
| Moat | Fair | moat 3.6/10 | |
| Health | Good | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Red Flags | Fair | not scored yet - half marks | |
| Option trading | Weak | no option volume data | |
| Stability | Fair | beta 0.34, $943M company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for DEC in the nightly calendar. The shares go ex-dividend on 2 Dec 2026 (0.2900 per share), so a covered call sold before then carries a small early-assignment risk around that date.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
The 12 companies below are the closest to Diversified Energy Company PLC by market cap within the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REPX Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. | 42.88 | 71.28 | +40% | 51Fair | $930M |
| HPK HighPeak Energy, Inc. | 7.57 | 7.12 | -6% | 21Weak | $957M |
| TBN Tamboran Resources Corp | 28.10 | 3.56 | -689% | 8No options | $982M |
| TXO TXO Partners, L.P. | 13.09 | 34.48 | +62% | 42Weak | $726M |
| KOS Kosmos Energy Ltd. | 2.25 | 11.33 | +80% | 43Weak | $1.3B |
| DMLP Dorchester Minerals, L.P. | 27.81 | 33.65 | +17% | 76Good | $1.4B |
| VTS Vitesse Energy, Inc. | 14.67 | 34.34 | +57% | 43Weak | $618M |
| OBE Obsidian Energy Ltd. | 9.21 | 2.75 | -235% | 31Weak | $615M |
| GPRK GeoPark Limited | 9.43 | 21.78 | +57% | 51Fair | $612M |
| GRNT Granite Ridge Resources, Inc | 4.63 | 4.45 | -4% | 26Weak | $611M |
| KRP Kimbell Royalty Partners, LP | 15.48 | 22.61 | +32% | 74Good | $1.6B |
| EGY VAALCO Energy, Inc. | 5.40 | 2.45 | -120% | 37Weak | $568M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about DEC
Is DEC undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 13.33 the stock is 94% below the average fair value of 225.79 (data as of 5 Nov 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of DEC and what does it mean?
DEC has no listed options in our nightly snapshot, so it cannot be wheeled; it fails the first Wheel Trade Filter (options that actually trade), stays under 70 and is shown as "No options".
What is the GLS fair value for DEC?
225.79 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Diversified Energy Company PLC report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for DEC in our calendar as of 5 Nov 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does DEC have listed options, and how liquid are they?
No. The nightly options snapshot found no listed contracts on DEC, so the wheel strategy cannot be run on it and the Wheel Score stays under 70.