Diversified Energy Company PLC (DEC): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is DEC undervalued?

Diversified Energy Company PLC (DEC) closed at 14.43 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 9 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 223.31, which puts the price 94% below it. 9 of the 9 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.

The 9 models disagree widely: DDM gives 17.07 while GLS Growth gives 527.83. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.

The nightly engine files DEC under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.

Nine valuation models for DEC

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

Financial health is average - DEC passes 6 of the nine Piotroski tests, which passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is low at 2.2 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.

Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 8.5%, ROE 34.7%, ROA 5.5% - with debt at 3.08 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 26.4%. Debt of 3.08 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.

The dividend yield is high at 8.04% (payout ratio 10%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Oil and Condensate 58%, Natural Gas 38%, Natural Gas, Midstream 2% (quarter Q2 FY2026).

Institutional ownership scores 9/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded insider buy was on 30 Sep 2026.

Wheel Score 39: No options

DEC has no listed options in the nightly snapshot, so there is nothing to sell and the stock cannot be wheeled however good the business; the Wheel Score is capped at 39 and shown as "No options" (39 here). The valuation and quality numbers still apply to owning the shares outright.

Volume runs at 579k shares a day on a market cap of $1.0B, with a beta of 0.35 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 13 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

No upcoming earnings date is recorded for DEC in the nightly calendar. The next ex-dividend date is 2 Dec 2026 (0.2900 per share).

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

Similar stocks in Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

The 12 companies below are the closest to Diversified Energy Company PLC by market cap within the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.

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