Stock fact sheet · data as of
HighPeak Energy, Inc. (HPK): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production · United States · Speculative / Distressed
Is HPK undervalued?
HPK closed at 9.95 on 16 Oct 2026, more than 30% above the GLS average fair value of 7.12. Only 1 of the 2 models that produced a value sit above the price. By our models the shares are priced well beyond what the filed earnings, cash flow and book value support; the Sunday Scan drops names like this at the "below fair value" rule.
The average is built from just 2 models (10 Cap, DDM) - the rest returned nothing because an input they need (dividends, free cash flow, book value) is zero or negative - so treat it with more caution than usual.
The nightly engine files HPK under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for HPK
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | 13.65 | +37% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 0.5886 | -94% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -11.75 | -218% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 12.00 | +21% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
HighPeak Energy, Inc. scores only 3 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, which fails the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. A reading this low means several of the basic tests - positive earnings, positive operating cash flow, falling debt, no new share issuance - are not met. A GLS Moat score of 1.5/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 0.7%, ROE 1.2%, ROA 0.6% - with debt at 0.71 times equity and negative free cash flow.
The dividend yield is 0.40% with a payout ratio of -13% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Crude Oil Sales 100% (quarter Q3 FY2025).
Institutional ownership scores 3/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 3 / 9 | ROIC | 0.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 1.5 / 10 | ROE | 1.2% |
| Debt / equity | 0.71 | ROA | 0.6% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -1.2% | Payout ratio | -13% |
| Institutions | 3 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 37: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 37 HighPeak Energy, Inc. sits in the Weak band. The parts - Value 0/25, Health 7/20, Moat 2/15, Premium 16/20, Stability 13/20 - show where: Value (0/25) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 78% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (16 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is 5,753 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 545k shares a day on a market cap of $1.3B, with a beta of 0.36 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 13 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -40% margin of safety | |
| Health | 7 / 20 | Piotroski 3/9 | |
| Moat | 2 / 15 | moat 1.5/10 | |
| Premium | 16 / 20 | implied volatility 78% | |
| Stability | 13 / 20 | 545k shares/day, $1.3B cap, beta 0.36 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
The 12 companies below are the closest to HighPeak Energy, Inc. by market cap within the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBN Tamboran Resources Corp | 35.31 | 3.54 | -897% | 14No options | $1.2B |
| DMLP Dorchester Minerals, L.P. | 29.87 | 33.14 | +10% | 66Good | $1.5B |
| DEC Diversified Energy Company PLC | 14.43 | 223.31 | +94% | 39No options | $1.0B |
| REPX Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. | 46.43 | 83.64 | +44% | 77Good | $1.0B |
| KOS Kosmos Energy Ltd. | 2.68 | 4.74 | +43% | 45Weak | $1.6B |
| NEXT Nextdecade Corp | 6.01 | - | - | 45Weak | $1.6B |
| KRP Kimbell Royalty Partners, LP | 15.94 | 22.31 | +29% | 70Good | $1.6B |
| MNR Mach Natural Resources LP | 10.84 | 37.90 | +71% | 77Good | $1.8B |
| VET Vermilion Energy Inc. | 12.45 | 31.90 | +61% | 45Weak | $1.9B |
| TXO TXO Partners, L.P. | 14.25 | 20.75 | +31% | 45Weak | $790M |
| OBE Obsidian Energy Ltd. | 11.47 | 4.07 | -182% | 47Weak | $765M |
| GPRK GeoPark Limited | 11.53 | 23.40 | +51% | 74Good | $748M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about HPK
Is HPK undervalued right now?
No: at 9.95 the stock trades 40% above the GLS average fair value of 7.12 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of HPK and what does it mean?
HPK scores 37 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for HPK?
7.12 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 2 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does HighPeak Energy, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does HPK have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 72 listed contracts with 5,753 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 78% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.