Granite Ridge Resources, Inc (GRNT): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is GRNT undervalued?

GRNT closed at 5.09 on 16 Oct 2026, which is 14% above the GLS average fair value of 4.45 from 2 models. 1 of them value the shares below today's price. Our screens read that as "no margin of safety": the stock is not a value candidate at this price, whatever the quality numbers say.

The average is built from just 2 models (10 Cap, DDM) - the rest returned nothing because an input they need (dividends, free cash flow, book value) is zero or negative - so treat it with more caution than usual.

The nightly engine files GRNT under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.

Nine valuation models for GRNT

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

Granite Ridge Resources, Inc scores only 4 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, which fails the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. A reading this low means several of the basic tests - positive earnings, positive operating cash flow, falling debt, no new share issuance - are not met. A GLS Moat score of 3.8/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.

Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 2.5%, ROE 4.0%, ROA 2.1% - with debt at 0.61 times equity and negative free cash flow.

The dividend yield is high at 8.64% (payout ratio -210%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Oil and Gas Service 94%, Natural Gas, Storage 6% (quarter Q2 FY2026).

Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.

Wheel Score 45: Weak

With a Wheel Score of 45 Granite Ridge Resources, Inc sits in the Weak band, capped at 45 because the engine files it as Speculative / Distressed. The parts - Value 6/25, Health 9/20, Moat 6/15, Premium 19/20, Stability 14/20 - show where: Value (6/25) scores lowest.

Implied volatility is 64% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (19 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is 2,885 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.

Volume runs at 1.3M shares a day on a market cap of $671M, with a beta of 0.17 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 14 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (after the close), 20 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

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