Stock fact sheet · data as of
MBIA Inc. (MBI): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol MBI · Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty · United States · Speculative
Is MBI undervalued?
MBIA Inc. (MBI) closed at 4.52 on 5 Nov 2026. None of the nine GLS valuation models produced a positive value for the stock - the company lost money over the last twelve months, EPS -3.20, it pays no dividend and its debts exceed what its assets would fetch - so there is no GLS average fair value and no margin of safety to report. The quality, option and event numbers below still apply; the Quote page's Wall Street View shows what analysts expect instead.
The nightly engine files MBI under Speculative - it is losing money or its Piotroski health score is 3 or lower - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for MBI
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -50.12 | -1209% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 14.00 | +210% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is weak: MBI passes 4 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our scans drop the stock at the health filter; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is low at 0.7 out of 10: returns on capital, margins or the balance sheet have not shown a lasting edge yet - often a young company, a thin-margin business or one that has only recently turned profitable.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -15.9%, ROE 7.9%, ROA -8.8% - with debt at -1.50 times equity and negative free cash flow.
MBIA Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Corporate Operations 47%, U S Public Finance Insurance 47%, International And Structured Finance In… 6% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 7/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 4 / 9 | ROIC | -15.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 0.7 / 10 | ROE | 7.9% |
| Debt / equity | -1.50 | ROA | -8.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -52.0% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 7 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 25: Weak
MBI scores 25 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50): it fails filter 2, a real business, not a gamble - speculative (a loss, or a weak Piotroski score); and filter 3, below fair value - trades right at our fair value; and filter 4, financially healthy - Piotroski 4/9 (under 6); and filter 6, no serious red flags - Red Flags score 45 (under 60); and filter 8, big enough - market cap $231M (under $1.0B); and filter 9, not a penny stock - price 4.52 (under $5), and the parts are thin too - value weak, premium strong, moat weak, health fair, red flags weak, option trading fair, stability fair. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 56% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% sweet spot the Wheel Score rewards most: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 25,655 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 381k shares a day on a market cap of $231M, with a beta of 1.38 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that fair.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Fails | speculative (a loss, or a weak Piotroski score) |
| 3 | Below fair value | Fails | trades right at our fair value |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Fails | Piotroski 4/9 (under 6) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Fails | Red Flags score 45 (under 60) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Fails | market cap $231M (under $1.0B) |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Fails | price 4.52 (under $5) |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Weak | 0% below fair value | |
| Premium | Strong | implied volatility 56% | |
| Moat | Weak | moat 0.7/10 | |
| Health | Fair | Piotroski 4/9 | |
| Red Flags | Weak | Red Flags score 45/100 | |
| Option trading | Fair | 1,322 contracts a day, 25,655 open interest | |
| Stability | Fair | beta 1.38, $231M company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for MBI in the nightly calendar.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Insurance - Specialty
The 12 companies below are the closest to MBIA Inc. by market cap within the Insurance - Specialty industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OSG Octave Specialty Group, Inc. | 5.22 | 9.54 | +45% | 40Weak | $235M |
| JRVR James River Group Holdings, Ltd. | 3.95 | 16.02 | +75% | 30Weak | $183M |
| AMSF AMERISAFE, Inc. | 20.34 | 25.98 | +22% | 45Weak | $377M |
| ITIC Investors Title Company | 268.89 | 319.62 | +16% | 29No options | $508M |
| TIPT Tiptree Inc. | 17.95 | 260.65 | +93% | 46Weak | $654M |
| EIG Employers Holdings, Inc. | 47.58 | 29.35 | -62% | 32Weak | $834M |
| STLY HG Holdings, Inc. | 3.40 | 4.87 | +30% | 28No options | $17M |
| AGO Assured Guaranty Ltd. | 72.51 | 187.86 | +61% | 44Weak | $3.2B |
| NMIH NMI Holdings, Inc. | 43.96 | 98.38 | +55% | 54Fair | $3.3B |
| ACMTA ACMAT Corporation | 19.00 | 19.47 | +2% | 15No options | $15M |
| RDN Radian Group Inc. | 36.59 | 82.19 | +55% | 82Good | $4.8B |
| MTG MGIC Investment Corporation | 29.13 | 48.62 | +40% | 82Good | $6.0B |
⚖ Compare MBI with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about MBI
Is MBI undervalued right now?
The GLS models could not value MBI (the company lost money over the last twelve months, EPS -3.20, it pays no dividend and its debts exceed what its assets would fetch), so there is no fair value or margin of safety to compare the price of 4.52 against.
What is the Wheel Score of MBI and what does it mean?
MBI scores 25 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filters 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 9. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for MBI?
None of the nine GLS models produced a positive value for MBI (the company lost money over the last twelve months, EPS -3.20, it pays no dividend and its debts exceed what its assets would fetch), so there is no GLS fair value tonight.
When does MBIA Inc. report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for MBI in our calendar as of 5 Nov 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does MBI have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 24 listed contracts with 25,655 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 56% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.