Stock fact sheet · data as of
MBIA Inc. (MBI): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty · United States · Speculative / Distressed
Is MBI undervalued?
At 4.39 (close of 16 Oct 2026), MBI trades 72% below the GLS average fair value of 15.52. That average comes from 1 models run on the latest filings, and 1 of them land above the current price. Margins of safety over 30% are the exception rather than the rule across the ~7,400 stocks we value each night, so the number earns MBIA Inc. the full Value points in the Wheel Score - and a closer look at what the market is pricing in.
Only 1 of the nine models produced a value (10 Cap); the others need a dividend, positive free cash flow or positive book value the company does not have yet, so the average rests on a narrow base.
The nightly engine files MBI under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for MBI
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | 15.52 | +253% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -50.12 | -1242% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 14.00 | +219% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is weak: MBI passes 4 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our screens drop the stock at the health rule; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is low at 0.9 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -15.9%, ROE 7.9%, ROA -8.8% - with debt at -1.50 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 19.2%.
MBIA Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Corporate Operations 47%, U S Public Finance Insurance 47%, International And Structured Finance In… 6% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 7/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 4 / 9 | ROIC | -15.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 0.9 / 10 | ROE | 7.9% |
| Debt / equity | -1.50 | ROA | -8.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 19.2% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 7 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 45: Weak
MBI scores 45 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50), capped at 45 because the engine files it as Speculative / Distressed. Value 25/25, Health 9/20, Moat 1/15, Premium 19/20, Stability 8/20. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 64% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (19 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is 47,627 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 278k shares a day on a market cap of $224M, with a beta of 1.46 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 8 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 72% margin of safety | |
| Health | 9 / 20 | Piotroski 4/9 | |
| Moat | 1 / 15 | moat 0.9/10 | |
| Premium | 19 / 20 | implied volatility 64% | |
| Stability | 8 / 20 | 278k shares/day, $224M cap, beta 1.46 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (after the close), 18 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Insurance - Specialty
The 12 companies below are the closest to MBIA Inc. by market cap within the Insurance - Specialty industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OSG Octave Specialty Group, Inc. | 4.60 | 9.52 | +52% | 45Weak | $207M |
| JRVR James River Group Holdings, Ltd. | 3.71 | 15.89 | +77% | 60Fair | $172M |
| AMSF AMERISAFE, Inc. | 25.04 | 28.94 | +13% | 66Good | $464M |
| ITIC Investors Title Company | 288.15 | 318.19 | +9% | 39No options | $544M |
| TIPT Tiptree Inc. | 16.90 | 265.66 | +94% | 72Good | $629M |
| EIG Employers Holdings, Inc. | 50.45 | 21.00 | -140% | 46Weak | $906M |
| STLY HG Holdings, Inc. | 3.58 | 4.87 | +27% | 39No options | $18M |
| NMIH NMI Holdings, Inc. | 40.10 | 97.71 | +59% | 88Prime | $3.0B |
| AGO Assured Guaranty Ltd. | 69.86 | 187.20 | +63% | 77Good | $3.1B |
| ACMTA ACMAT Corporation | 19.00 | 19.14 | +1% | 35No options | $15M |
| RDN Radian Group Inc. | 33.41 | 81.50 | +59% | 85Prime | $4.4B |
| MTG MGIC Investment Corporation | 27.61 | 49.38 | +44% | 89Prime | $5.7B |
⚖ Compare MBI with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about MBI
Is MBI undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 4.39 the stock is 72% below the average fair value of 15.52 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of MBI and what does it mean?
MBI scores 45 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for MBI?
15.52 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 1 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does MBIA Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (after the close), 18 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does MBI have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 146 listed contracts with 47,627 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 64% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.