Stock fact sheet · data as of
MP Materials Corp. (MP): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol MP · Basic Materials · Industrial Materials · United States · Speculative
Is MP undervalued?
At 35.91 (close of 5 Nov 2026), MP has no GLS fair value: every one of the nine models needs a positive input (the company lost money over the last twelve months, EPS -0.34 and it pays no dividend), so the margin of safety is blank and the Wheel Score cannot be computed. Our scans leave the stock out at the first filter. What can be said from the nightly row is below.
The nightly engine files MP under Speculative - it is losing money or its Piotroski health score is 3 or lower - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for MP
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 3.08 | -91% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 80.70 | +125% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
MP Materials Corp. scores only 2 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, which fails the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter. A reading this low means several of the basic tests - positive earnings, positive operating cash flow, falling debt, no new share issuance - are not met. A GLS Moat score of 1.4/10 is a weak reading: the accounts do not show returns and margins that competitors have been unable to wear down, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -2.5%, ROE -3.6%, ROA -2.1% - with debt at 0.44 times equity and negative free cash flow.
MP Materials Corp. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Materials 100% (fiscal year FY2024).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 2 / 9 | ROIC | -2.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 1.4 / 10 | ROE | -3.6% |
| Debt / equity | 0.44 | ROA | -2.1% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -7.9% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 27: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 27 MP Materials Corp. sits in the Weak band. It fails filter 2, a real business, not a gamble - speculative (a loss, or a weak Piotroski score); and filter 3, below fair value - trades right at our fair value; and filter 4, financially healthy - Piotroski 2/9 (under 6); and filter 5, can repay its debt - debt with no positive cash flow to repay it; Value (weak) is its weakest part.
Implied volatility is 69% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% top of the sweet spot. It still passes the 25-80% filter, but the Wheel Score rewards it less because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. The option chain is deep: 172,527 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 8.1M shares a day on a market cap of $6.4B, with a beta of 2.06 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that weak.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Fails | speculative (a loss, or a weak Piotroski score) |
| 3 | Below fair value | Fails | trades right at our fair value |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Fails | Piotroski 2/9 (under 6) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Fails | debt with no positive cash flow to repay it |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Weak | 0% below fair value | |
| Premium | Strong | implied volatility 69% | |
| Moat | Weak | moat 1.4/10 | |
| Health | Weak | Piotroski 2/9 | |
| Red Flags | Fair | Red Flags score 75/100 | |
| Option trading | Strong | 25,860 contracts a day, 172,527 open interest | |
| Stability | Weak | beta 2.06, $6.4B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
MP Materials Corp. reports earnings on 5 Nov 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
No analyst upgrades or downgrades were recorded in the last 30 days.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Industrial Materials
The 12 companies below are the closest to MP Materials Corp. by market cap within the Industrial Materials industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTRN Materion Corporation | 187.26 | 82.69 | -126% | 34Weak | $3.9B |
| SKE Skeena Resources Limited | 29.37 | 0.3946 | -7343% | 20Weak | $3.7B |
| ALM Almonty Industries Inc. | 8.79 | 3.01 | -192% | 19Weak | $2.5B |
| NEXA Nexa Resources S.A. | 11.90 | 20.54 | +42% | 47Weak | $1.6B |
| VZLA Vizsla Silver Corp. | 3.29 | 0.5513 | -497% | 23Weak | $1.2B |
| EMAT Evolution Metals & Technologies Corp. Common Stock | 1.85 | - | - | 12No options | $1.2B |
| USAR USA Rare Earth Inc | 8.20 | 3.78 | -117% | 17Weak | $1.1B |
| USAS Americas Gold and Silver Corporation | 3.08 | - | - | 23Weak | $1.0B |
| CMP Compass Minerals International, Inc. | 23.26 | 23.90 | +3% | 30Weak | $976M |
| CRML Critical Metals Corp. | 6.37 | 0.1400 | -4449% | 20Weak | $936M |
| VALE Vale S.A. | 11.43 | 14.32 | +20% | 52Fair | $48.6B |
| LAR Lithium Argentina AG | 4.20 | - | - | 16Weak | $689M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about MP
Is MP undervalued right now?
The GLS models could not value MP (the company lost money over the last twelve months, EPS -0.34 and it pays no dividend), so there is no fair value or margin of safety to compare the price of 35.91 against.
What is the Wheel Score of MP and what does it mean?
MP scores 27 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filters 2, 3, 4, 5. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for MP?
None of the nine GLS models produced a positive value for MP (the company lost money over the last twelve months, EPS -0.34 and it pays no dividend), so there is no GLS fair value tonight.
When does MP Materials Corp. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (after the close), 0 days from the data date of 5 Nov 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does MP have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 410 listed contracts with 172,527 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 69% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.