Vale S.A. (VALE): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is VALE undervalued?

VALE closed at 13.21 on 16 Oct 2026, 18% below the GLS average fair value of 16.18 from 9 models (5 of them above the price). That is a moderate margin of safety: the stock passes the "below fair value" rule of the Sunday Scan, and the Wheel Score gives it 20 of the 25 Value points.

The 9 models disagree widely: GLS Growth gives 1.48 while 10 Cap gives 42.11. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.

The nightly engine files VALE under High Yield Income: a dividend yield above 4%.

Nine valuation models for VALE

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

On financial health VALE scores 7/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is low at 3.0 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.

Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 4.7%, ROE 7.4%, ROA 2.8% - with debt at 0.58 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 6.7%.

The dividend yield is high at 8.41% (payout ratio 203%) - a payout above 100% of earnings, which is not covered by profits. A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Iron Ore 86%, Copper 13%, Other 1% (fiscal year FY2025).

Institutional ownership scores 2/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.

Wheel Score 80: Prime

VALE scores 80 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Prime band (80 and above), which fewer than one stock in twenty reaches on any night. The score blends five things a wheel trader checks before selling a cash-secured put: the margin of safety (Value, 20/25), Piotroski health (16/20), the GLS moat (5/15), the option premium on offer (20/20) and how easily the stock trades (20/20).

Implied volatility is 41% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 1,680,619 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.

Volume runs at 34.4M shares a day on a market cap of $56.2B, with a beta of 0.53 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

Vale S.A. reports earnings on 29 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

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The 12 companies below are the closest to Vale S.A. by market cap within the Industrial Materials industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.

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