Tractor Supply Company (TSCO): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is TSCO undervalued?

TSCO closed at 32.74 on 16 Oct 2026, more than 30% above the GLS average fair value of 21.97. Only 2 of the 9 models that produced a value sit above the price. By our models the shares are priced well beyond what the filed earnings, cash flow and book value support; the Sunday Scan drops names like this at the "below fair value" rule.

There is a wide gap between Payback Time (12.88) and Graham Growth (44.40). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.

The nightly engine files TSCO under Defensive: a low beta, a dividend and positive earnings.

Nine valuation models for TSCO

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

Tractor Supply Company scores 6 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 8.8/10 puts TSCO among the more durable businesses we track: over ten years the metrics the score watches (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, ROIC) have mostly moved the right way, year after year.

Returns on capital are high - ROIC 12.9%, ROE 42.5%, ROA 10.0% - with debt at 2.30 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 1.8%. Debt of 2.30 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.

The dividend yield is 2.90% at a payout ratio of 49%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Livestock, Equine & Agriculture 32%, Seasonal & Recreation 26%, Companion Animal 21% (quarter Q2 FY2026).

Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 3/10 and Congressional trading 2/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded Congressional buy was on 10 Aug 2026.

Wheel Score 67: Good

With a Wheel Score of 67 - the Good band - Tractor Supply Company falls just short of the Sunday Scan's "70 or higher" rule. The parts: Value 0/25, Health 13/20, Moat 13/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 20/20; Value (0/25) scores lowest.

Implied volatility is 50% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 146,919 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.

Volume runs at 16.0M shares a day on a market cap of $17.1B, with a beta of 0.51 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

Tractor Supply Company reports earnings on 22 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

Similar stocks in Specialty Retail

The 12 companies below are the closest to Tractor Supply Company by market cap within the Specialty Retail industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.

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